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How likely is it?

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  • How likely is it?

    A known second cousin just received FF results today.

    He should match me and another second cousin and a first cousin once removed. We all share the same ancestral pair, which are my gr grandparents. The rest of us do accurately reflect this level of kinship. Each of the 4 of us descend from a different child of this ancestral couple.

    How likely is it that:
    1. The results are not yet completely rolled in?
    2. This known second cousin would not match any of the 3 cousins who have already tested?

    This is a surprising development and something I would not have guessed knowing the personalities involved. His parent are both still living, so this needs to be addressed with delicacy and sensitivity.

    He is enrolled in what should be the appropriate surname group but has not done a ydna test. That was not the line we were trying to prove out with the test. I ran the advanced comparison between FF and the surname project and have no matches. There are a handful of matches with that surname in their list, but none are closely related.

    How would I/we confirm this is not just a rare lab error?
    He hasn't asked me about it yet, but I know he will when he has a chance to think about what this might mean.

    I should mention there is what appears to be a solid and close match on his mother's side.

    Thank you for your advice and assistance.

  • #2
    I currently manage 3 kits and they have all arrived fully populated with matches (including close matches). From my experience with these kits your expected match would be on it with the initial results if he were going to be.


    • #3
      I presume this second cousin should be related through his father? As you write, it could be delicate if there's an NPE involved.

      But, if there are more males involved in the lineage back to this ancestral couple the NPE could have happened anywhere there.


      • #4
        2nd cousin - not matching

        This second cousin should match through his father and grandmother. His grandmother is daughter to the ancestral couple who should be common to all 4 of us.

        I would have thought perhaps an adoption event except for the one strong match on his mother's side. I haven't worked it out totally yet, but it looks likely to be a second or third cousin and is his closest match since the results were posted.


        • #5
          I would run each of your 3 kits Raw Data against this known 2nd cousins Raw Data using the following David Pikes Utility

          and see if it comes up with any substantial sized segments

          It is possible(slim) this 2nd cousin just inherited different segments of common ancestor seeing that each descend from different child of common ancestors and shared segments are not enough for FTDNA matching algorithm.
          Last edited by prairielad; 7 August 2014, 06:31 PM.


          • #6
            Raw Data Compared

            I checked his raw data against each of the other of us who tested... Unless I am reading it incorrectly, there are some significant segments. (Can I breathe easier now?)

            Against all of us Me, 2nd-2, 1stx1, there were a bunch of little tiny segments, and at least one larger one as follows:

            Me: Chr 1 has a Single Segment Match of length 620 from position 118276152 to position 145704639 ( 27.43 Mb)
            2nd-2: Chr 1 has a Single Segment Match of length 605 from position 120123642 to position 149903609 ( 29.78 Mb)

            1stx1: Chr 11 has a Single Segment Match of length 937 from position 47196982 to position 57684680 ( 10.49 Mb)
            2nd-2: Chr 11 has a Single Segment Match of length 516 from position 47737805 to position 56228448 ( 8.49 Mb)

            Is this enough to indicate we are all kin afterall? These were the largest segments listed. Is there something else I should look at?

            So, for now, it's just the luck of the draw that he's not officially matching?

            How do I use his data in assessing other matches, or can it be used?

            I am waiting on results for one more 1st cousin x1 on this line and should have them back for comparison any day now.

            Thank you again for your help.


            • #7
              Another possibility

              It occurs to me that there is another possibility...
              It is possible the breach occurred a generation higher, which was suggested. That would require that the father be adopted.
              There are no whispers in the family about either possibility that I am aware of.

              On gedmatch, there are a total of 6 cousins for comparison, not including this second cousin, who all descend from this same ancestral couple. He is the only one who isn't showing as a match to anyone in this group... unless the parameters are lowered considerably.

              He also has a sister who could test. Will work on that. She hasn't shown interest in joining our project... yet. I'm not sure if he will want to pursue ydna, but I have approached that topic so he can think about it.

              This has been one of those surprises you know to expect, but don't really think you'll see.


              • #8
                Just confirmation

                I think I am just seeking confirmation of what seems pretty obvious. Because this was a total shock to find, and all the parties are still living, all possibilities however remote should be considered.

                There are 6 other relatives who are on gedmatch who should match this second cousin at the first once removed or second cousin level. None show up as a match for this second cousin at gedmatch unless the parameters are lowered significantly. All the rest show strong kinship to each other.

                The 7 testers all descend from the same ancestral couple through 4 different siblilngs. See attached diagram. Can I say with strong certainty that he is not kin(by dna)and does not descend from this ancestral couple?

                Opinions, comments, advice all welcome.
                Attached Files


                • #9
                  Sorted out

                  2nd cousin X seems to have sorted this all out and has produced a story that seems plausible.

                  His mother was very serious with another guy. Everyone thought they would eventually get married. There was a blow up. She met his "dad" and wed shortly after.

                  Putting 2 and 2 together pretty much leads to the results we saw from the test with a match on mom's side, but not dad's.

                  Not sure if he will want to seek bio dad or not. It's a lot to swallow.