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No matches in over 30 days. Market saturation?

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  • #31
    Originally posted by Geneadict View Post

    At this point, it appears pretty clear that FTDNA is trying to wait out the AncestryDNA surge,
    I don't know if the "surge" will end anytime soon... It has been controlled via invitation since the spring. If Ancestry opens ordering to everyone that will be create a real surge so maybe after they process non-invite orders the surge will end.. I doubt it though.

    I also don't think any of the three companies really track the other companies as much we might think.

    FTDNA has basically created a situation where they will only get most of their orders when they have sales, which I can't blame the customers for taking advantage of, but that's the way it is working so I wouldn't expect many matches except when there are sales now.

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    • #32
      Originally posted by djknox View Post
      Actually, I think famiytreedna is dead in the water wrt Autosomal Testing if they don't a) increase the resolution chip to match Ancestry.com... and b) lower the price a little.

      They're still top dog for mtdna & Ydna etc.... but for mainstream genealogy they better put some "pedal to the metal". Kinda like Blackberry vs IPhone.

      They do have some time however because Ancestry's tools are still very basic and will take some time to raise them to the needed standards... but their increased resolution and better matching will eventually crush FTDNA unless FTDNA reacts soon. Maybe FTDNA is looking to be bought out?? Heck I don't even see any more newsletters being generated??
      re: the "resolution"....I assume you are inferring this based on higher number of matches as compared to database side, however this may simply be a result of using smaller segments and may contain high numbers that are not real or are not related within a genealogical time frame.....until we get segment share detail to better understand AncestryDNAs matching logic, I would be cautious about saying anything favorable about it. Meanwhile they are less accurate at predicting close relationships (2nd cousin or closer) than the science indicates they should be able to. And for those finding name matches, just consider the probabilistic nature of finding trees with names in common if you lower the threshold and come from a common population. For AncestryDNA we can't even validate their science and even if the test they provide helps create a few leads, how many are any better than just searching the the trees without the DNA test. Meanwhile you haven't validated anything and perhaps even added a few unverifiable and incorrect ancestral lines due to a perceived genetic share which may have nothing to do with the ancestors in question. The only real issues with the AncestryDNA growth and stagnation of FF are PRICE and Ancestry's existing client base. With lower pricing, FTDNA's existing place in the market and client base, and some strategic advertising, FF database could easily grow just as fast.

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      • #33
        Originally posted by mkdexter View Post
        I don't know if the "surge" will end anytime soon... It has been controlled via invitation since the spring. If Ancestry opens ordering to everyone that will be create a real surge so maybe after they process non-invite orders the surge will end.. I doubt it though.

        I also don't think any of the three companies really track the other companies as much we might think.

        FTDNA has basically created a situation where they will only get most of their orders when they have sales, which I can't blame the customers for taking advantage of, but that's the way it is working so I wouldn't expect many matches except when there are sales now.
        Matt, I agree an even greater "surge" could come if they open up test offering at the $99 price without the invitation control and allow for single Ancestry accounts to order multiple tests.

        So unless FTDNA is content with their existing client base and add-on test ordering approach to the business (and as such try to max out cash generated per kit over time and treat as a captured audience) which has also tied most of their orders received to sales, the only way they can catch up in terms of autosomal DNA database size will be through lower pricing.

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        • #34
          Originally posted by djknox View Post
          Maybe FTDNA is looking to be bought out??
          I very much doubt that they are looking to be bought out, but ultimately every business is for sale at the right price.

          Heck I don't even see any more newsletters being generated??
          FTDNA's customer communication efforts can only be described as abysmal. They simply don't get the concept. If Greenspan pays somebody to perform that role then he's being royally ripped off. Frankly as CEO I'd expect him to be, and to want to be, responsible for oversight of customer relations.

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          • #35
            I am getting over ten new matches a day at AncestryDNA!

            Maybe FTDNA don't mind this competition!!

            Originally posted by Geneadict View Post
            Matt, I agree an even greater "surge" could come if they open up test offering at the $99 price without the invitation control and allow for single Ancestry accounts to order multiple tests.

            Comment


            • #36
              Well I have been a paying customer with Ancestry for 8 years, and have still not received an "invitation" to spend $99!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

              With customer loyalty like that, I will not be bothering.

              Comment


              • #37
                @andbro just call them.. I am told..they are taking phone orders. doesn't hurt to make a call.

                Comment


                • #38
                  Originally posted by Solothurn View Post
                  I am getting over ten new matches a day at AncestryDNA!

                  Maybe FTDNA don't mind this competition!!
                  Is Ancestry using the same definition of what constitutes a match as FTDNA?

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    They generally seem to be a good deal more conservative about relationship range, and they have high, moderate, low, and very low confidence levels.

                    I have nothing closer than projected 4th-6th cousins. These are "high confidence." All the others, from moderate to very low are listed as 5th-8th.

                    I assume the parameters are roughly the same, but I've read that they're phasing the DNA, and if so, the results are more reliable.

                    Originally posted by ursus View Post
                    Is Ancestry using the same definition of what constitutes a match as FTDNA?

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Ancestry seems to get all the 4th and farther cousin ranges in pretty good. I have 15 confirmed matches to date, all 5th - 8th cousin and they came in right in the ranges Ancestry listed.

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                      • #41
                        I'm pretty sure about the people in my tree back to the 5th generation its the ones pass that I like to have DNA help with supporting the information i have or helping find an unknown ancestor.

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Matches have slowed to a trickle...

                          Originally posted by Solothurn View Post
                          I am getting over ten new matches a day at AncestryDNA!

                          Maybe FTDNA don't mind this competition!!
                          2 matches within the last month and a half- Both :
                          No Haplogroup
                          No ancestral surnames
                          No distant Paternal or Maternal surnames
                          No GEDCOMS
                          I'm begining to get rather discouraged

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            FTDNA vs AncestryDNA

                            AncestryDNA is not making any money off of the $99 test.

                            Just remember, it is in AncestryDNA's best interest to give you as many matches as possible for as long as possible, no matter how marginal the match.

                            They hope that you continue to subscribe monthly in order to view the family trees of your matches. In the long run, the monthly subscription costs you more than the FF test.

                            I think this is the real reason that ancestryDNA is holding the raw data hostage.

                            FTDNA should market themselves as the elite in genetic genealogy testing.

                            They should state something like this:

                            "FTDNA tests to the highest scientific standard and provides you with verifiable raw DNA data with no monthly subscription fees. We don't hide your DNA data from you like that other "wannabe" DNA company."

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Originally posted by ajmr1a1 View Post
                              FTDNA should market themselves as the elite in genetic genealogy testing.

                              They should state something like this:

                              "FTDNA tests to the highest scientific standard and provides you with verifiable raw DNA data with no monthly subscription fees. We don't hide your DNA data from you like that other "wannabe" DNA company."
                              That's a good approach...but Ancestry phases their data, while FTDNA does not.

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Originally posted by ajmr1a1 View Post
                                AncestryDNA is not making any money off of the $99 test.

                                Just remember, it is in AncestryDNA's best interest to give you as many matches as possible for as long as possible, no matter how marginal the match.

                                They hope that you continue to subscribe monthly in order to view the family trees of your matches. In the long run, the monthly subscription costs you more than the FF test.

                                I think this is the real reason that ancestryDNA is holding the raw data hostage.

                                FTDNA should market themselves as the elite in genetic genealogy testing.

                                They should state something like this:

                                "FTDNA tests to the highest scientific standard and provides you with verifiable raw DNA data with no monthly subscription fees. We don't hide your DNA data from you like that other "wannabe" DNA company."
                                LOL Ancestry FINALLY sent me their big invite yesterday through my e-mail. I was working so I didn't notice it until today. They are giving me a big 4 days to order their test. So I signed on to my account just to see what it says and here it is:

                                Discover the story in your DNA.
                                Get an Ancestry.com subscription and save.

                                “AncestryDNA connected me to a 2nd cousin I never knew. And through our family trees we were able to see how we were related. A cousin once lost to time and distance is now reunited through the use of DNA”.
                                Arlene O.
                                - Irvine, CA.
                                Experience AncestryDNA™

                                Discover your genetic ethnicity
                                Make new family connections
                                More than 700,000 DNA markers tested
                                Built to be integrated with Ancestry.com
                                Continually updated personalized results
                                For both men and women

                                Only $99
                                with a 6-month
                                Ancestry.com subscription


                                AncestryDNA ($99) + U.S. Discovery = $175*
                                Includes access to all U.S. records on Ancestry.com


                                AncestryDNA ($99) + World Explorer = $245*
                                Includes access to everything on Ancestry.com

                                AncestryDNA $179*
                                Without an Ancestry.com subscription
                                Compare these options
                                Buy now


                                WHOOP-DEE-DOO! I will not be ordering! I hope that FTDNA takes notice here what these guys are offering me as a price if I don't take their subscription. This is approximately the price that I paid for Family Finder with the generosity of another poster on this forum giving me his coupon code back in June. I was not marketed by FTDNA at that time to get the coupon, despite doing my mtDNA here. They definitely need to come up with better marketing strategies.

                                By the way they are claiming they test over 700,000 markers of DNA for this test, does anyone know how many does FTDNA use for FF?
                                Last edited by Táltos; 6 October 2012, 11:28 AM. Reason: typo

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