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No matches in over 30 days. Market saturation?

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  • #16
    Originally posted by niklin View Post
    I think that the lack of new matches must be technical issues at FTDNA.
    There were the issues with chromosome 9 which probably created a backlog, and recently there was a Population Finder survey. They may be holding kits until the results of that survey are through.

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    • #17
      Well my mom's kit just appeared. Which is weird because her results weren't expected until early November. I got 3 other new matches as well. Yay!
      Last edited by Osiris; 30 September 2012, 05:37 PM. Reason: New info.

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      • #18
        Whee, 7 new matches in my kit now, as of this morning (its Oct 1 here already, keep up! )

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        • #19
          Originally posted by EdwardRHill View Post
          Well I hope in the next two days some comes up i bet it will no reason for them to wait just 30 days. I think I have gotten matches on the weekend.
          I got 11 matches yesterday the sky is falling the sky is falling.

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          • #20
            A couple more possibilities come to mind:

            - FTDNA has gone to releasing results on the last day of the month. I've advocated this for a while (not necessarily the last day, but some regular release schedule). This has been neither announced nor suggested to be the case by FTDNA, however.

            - It might be a reasonable assumption that the "Friends and Family" sale in June "front loaded" a lot of tests. A very rough estimation based on my kit numbers suggests that the average sales rate of kits was ~2700/mo between late March 2011 and late April 2012. The average rate for the next two months - which includes the sale - was ~5000/mo. It is possible that many people in that increase would have tested in any case over the next 6 months or so. We got spoiled over the summer with a large matches every couple of weeks, and now we're seeing the tail.

            I'm sure the marketing folks at FTDNA have closely examined the data.

            The upshot is, I'm not convinced that the recent slower and lower release is indicative of any real market saturation.

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            • #21
              FTDNA releases new kits as they are processed. They don't have a set or specific processing schedule. If there are certain reasons for delay they most likely \due to IT work, or due to waiting for more kits to come in.

              I'd agree with @sjadelson, in the sense that kits are probably only coming in when there are sales..
              Last edited by mkdexter; 1 October 2012, 09:58 PM.

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              • #22
                I certainly waited for a sale before buying any new kits. I also advise project members wanting to buy new kits or other tests to wait for a sale.
                Why wouldnt you want to save a bit of money.

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by rivergirl View Post
                  Why wouldnt you want to save a bit of money.
                  Obvious answers would be when the person is unaware that sales occur, if they are too anxious to wait for said sale, or when they are concerned about the availability of a testee in the longer term.

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                  • #24
                    I upgraded my mother 1 day before the sale. I'm sure that they didn't even send the kit out yet and I wrote to ask them to include her in the sale, but I have not heard back

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                    • #25
                      Oh and by the way I had three pages of new matches today, from Sept 30. While they were mostly Ashkenazi and hard to pin down, there were also a few of the WASP matches and surnames from my mother's side.

                      Good news is that I have a lot of Western Ukrainian matches with shared surnames and I have a brickwall at my Western Ukrainian (Ashkenazi) great grandparents.

                      Bad news is that it's not obvious that the shared surname is the shared ancestor since we don't overlap on the same places / chromosomes.

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                      • #26
                        Whoopee, I got ..... one.

                        Yet another suspected 5th cousin with no family surnames entered.

                        I think I've peaked as far as FF is concerned.

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by gtc View Post
                          Whoopee, I got ..... one.

                          Yet another suspected 5th cousin with no family surnames entered.

                          I think I've peaked as far as FF is concerned.
                          LOL I think I peaked with my initial results that I received on 07.06.2012 which I think my original count was 63 or 64. Out of half of them, they are Eastern European/Jewish, thank goodness or I would have had even less to start with! After that my next highest amount of matches are Colonial American, at 15.

                          4 matches on 07.19.2012
                          A whopping 6 matches on 08.10.2012
                          1 match on 08.31.2012
                          And as of Sunday night 2 new matches. One who has no information listed, except their name and an e-mail, hopefully their e-mail works. They have an Italian last name, and I'm hopeful maybe we could find a common surname. The other very Lithuanian, surnames and ancestral places listed.

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                          • #28
                            FF Pricing Too High

                            The lower number of new matches for September and fact that FTDNA has now had two short term sales on FF since their annual summer sales are both suggestive that FF pricing is simply too high compared to it's competition. When you also consider the rapid growth being seen in AncestryDNA with their $99+shipping price and 23andMe also resorting to short term sales it's pretty clear there is still demand for the product, but competition is fierce.

                            Just imagine the potential growth they could have achieved if FF were priced at $149 vs the recurring sale price of $199 or base price of $289? Or had they taken better advantage of the 23andMe upload offering by continuing to offer the short term intro pricing they started with.

                            At this point, it appears pretty clear that FTDNA is trying to wait out the AncestryDNA surge, hoping they will eventually raise the price or saturate their existing client base for whom only the $99 incremental price is a factor since they already feel they are getting enough value out of their subscription with the world's largest online genealogy library. With existing client base having a limit, could conceivable see decline at some point in demand if both the incremental price and subscription are a consideration.

                            Meanwhile FF, smallest of the 3 autosomal DNA databases for company who advertises that it has the largest databases.

                            Unfortunate for we the customers and opportunity lost for FTDNA.

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                            • #29
                              Actually, I think famiytreedna is dead in the water wrt Autosomal Testing if they don't a) increase the resolution chip to match Ancestry.com... and b) lower the price a little.

                              They're still top dog for mtdna & Ydna etc.... but for mainstream genealogy they better put some "pedal to the metal". Kinda like Blackberry vs IPhone.

                              They do have some time however because Ancestry's tools are still very basic and will take some time to raise them to the needed standards... but their increased resolution and better matching will eventually crush FTDNA unless FTDNA reacts soon. Maybe FTDNA is looking to be bought out?? Heck I don't even see any more newsletters being generated??

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                              • #30
                                I was going to order some more FF tests when the next sale was released. But when results are coming in so randomly and at greater intervals. I chose not to order.
                                With Ancestry offering the test a $99 it does make Ftdna tests expensive. Although I have transferred my results to Ancestry, I find Ancestries system lacking enormously, so will not order from them. If FTdna test were cheaper say a sale price of $150 if you order 2. I would certainly buy.
                                Maybe then results would be more often, and present testers would be more satisfied including myself. I always read reviews before I buy. The fact that FTdna make no announcements when people are complaining does not look good to new customers. This combined with Ancestries price, will not make it a good purchase.

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