Which Y-DNA test to have a potential relative take to establish MRCA

[georgian1950]

You can do pretty much the same thing by plotting your Y111 matches who have done a BigY, assuming you have some. In general, BigY matches at Y111 fall into place, although I have seen some give misleading directions. Not sure how reliable Y67 and BigY matches might be....

And doing the BigY is a very good idea. You really want to move off I-M253, which is extremely basal. There are millions of I-M253 men, so hardly refined.

The guy who I formed a new terminal SNP with, I only matched at Y-67, while my half-dozen or so Y111 matches proved to be not so close. You can guess my opinion about STR matching.

As a I-M253 person myself, I fully concur about Big Y testing.

[mabrams]

I am a NevGen user, but not an expert at all. I would agree that 64% sounds like a new subclade, with 36% to a known subclade. In other words, probably new, but not surprising if you do come up on a known subclade or very near.

You can do pretty much the same thing by plotting your Y111 matches who have done a BigY, assuming you have some. In general, BigY matches at Y111 fall into place, although I have seen some give misleading directions. Not sure how reliable Y67 and BigY matches might be.

If you have not done so, you should check out FTDNA Discover Tool for I-M253 as well as the Public HaploTree. All good stuff.

And doing the BigY is a very good idea. You really want to move off I-M253, which is extremely basal. There are millions of I-M253 men, so hardly refined.

[james1994]

Thanks mabrams - I forgot to mention in my last post that I did indeed have a play around with the Nevgen predictor. I got 35.7% likelihood for one subclade, and 64.3% likelihood for "unsupported subslade". So I presume that means my results point to a subclade that's not yet in Nevgen's haplotree?

In any case, will be interesting to see how Nevgen's prediction tallies with my confirmed haplogroup from FTDNA once I get my Big Y results back.

[mabrams]

Thx James

As you probably know, I-M253 is a very common haplogroup, although far less so than R-M269.

If you haven't already, I recommend that you join this group.
I1 yDNA Haplogroup - Background | FamilyTreeDNA
Unfortunately, the Y results are private, but if you join, then you can see them. Almost 10,000.

And you should play around with the free Nevgen predictor that I mentioned. Be sure to select this option "Subclades of I (67+ markers)". Nice to know what haplotype your Y111 points to, even if that is not guaranteed.

[james1994]

Thanks so much for your help and advice on this, everyone!

I decided I would go ahead and upgrade to a Big Y-700 - I'm awaiting my result now. Meanwhile, I'll have my potential relative take a Y-37 (I can't really afford to spend more money than I have to) and if we're a match, I'll go ahead and upgrade them to Big Y-700 to get the best possible insight into our (distant) relationship.

mabrams - the haplogroup prediction I'm getting from Y-111 is I-M253.

KATM - thanks for the tips, I'll be sure to make sure that the swabbing is done well so that an upgrade to Big Y-700 is possible.

In the course of my research I've come across some helpful bits and bobs which may be of interest to others who have found themselves on this thread.

For anyone looking for a cheaper way to test relatives, as an alternative to waiting for a sale, I would consider joining the Guild of One Name Studies for £18 per year. They sell FTDNA Y-37 kits to their members for £72 (shipped from the UK) compared to approx. £96 (based on current currency conversion) and more expensive shipping when buying directly from FTDNA. For anyone planning to buy several FTDNA Y-37 kits in a year, this could be a worthwhile saving. There are also a bunch of other benefits of membership.

On my second question around finding data/formula/calculator/study to help understand how much more a Big Y-700 match can tell you than a Y-37, and for general interest in calculating the MRCA from a match, the study that the FTDNATiP calculator is based off can be found here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1461668/ - it's a very technical paper, but nice to see 'under the bonnet'.

Stevo - your charts were very helpful and led me to discover this MRCA calculator on the Clan Donald website: https://clandonaldusa.org/index.php/tmrca-calculator - which is a bit fiddly but a good alternative to the FTDNATiP calculator, and has the benefit that you can play around with it outside of the context of a specific match.

Thanks again, everyone - much appreciated!

[KATM]

Indeed it does, Jim Barrett! But when I checked the price for the Y-37, I see it as $119, which made me wonder if I was mistaken in one of my earlier posts, when I said $119 was the regular price. I've come to the conclusion that the Y-DNA tests are not on sale for Valentine's Day. The sale only seems to be on the Family Finder and Family Finder + myDNA Wellness tests.

[Jim Barrett]

Doesn't FTDNA usually have a sale around both Valentine Day?

[KATM]

To correct at least one error in my previous posts:

Some haplogroups have STR packs, to test for sub-branches below the main haplogroup.

That should read: "Some haplogroup projects recommend SNP packs" - not STR.

There will likely be a sale this month (February, 2023) for RootsTech. Here is last year's announcement. Probably same prices as above
RootsTech 2022 Special Offers - FamilyTreeDNA Blog

Even if you want to go slow on your potential match's Y testing, you should consider the BigY for yourself....an upgrade from Y111 is fairly inexpensive.

mabrams, good catch! If past posts are any indication, then Roberta Estes' blog, https://dna-explained.com, should post sale pricing at RootsTech, which is from 2-4 March 2023. I'd keep an eye out for that. I'm not sure that FTDNA will post those deals on their site, but they might. And if the sale prices are similar to last year, for james1994 to upgrade to Big Y-700 from Y-111, and $79 for the potential relative to get a Y-37 might be just a bit less painful to his wallet.

Now we just need to hear what james1994 thinks about all this.

[mabrams]

There will likely be a sale this month (February, 2023) for RootsTech. Here is last year's announcement. Probably same prices as above
RootsTech 2022 Special Offers - FamilyTreeDNA Blog

Even if you want to go slow on your potential match's Y testing, you should consider the BigY for yourself....an upgrade from Y111 is fairly inexpensive.

~~~~~

As for autosomal testing, from
3rd to 4th cousin, you will probably match
5th to 10th cousin, you might match
11th onward, very unlikely to match

But even if you match, it will be hard to prove that is was along the strict Y lines.

Autosomal testing is still a good idea as you can get an idea of your match's haplotype, and if compatible/incompatible with yours.
23andMe and LivingDNA provide haplotypes, often quite deep
AncestryDNA Raw Data has thousands of YSNPs that can be analyzed for free at Clade Finder

FTDNA has removed any YSNPs from Family Finder, so testing there would involve Y37 or greater, and getting into their system.

~~~~

It would help, if you mentioned the haplogroup you are receiving from your Y111. Although very basic, it would help to know if you have R-M269 or another common haplogroup or an uncommon one.

FTDNA, as policy, will not predict an advanced SNP haplotype based upon STR markers, even if Y111
But third parties will.

Nevgen can often make a decent prediction. Not always. Y-DNA Haplogroup Predictor - NEVGEN.ORG
The trick to Nevegen, is to click on the the three white "barred" lines in upper left corner and select the appropriate Subclade option.

~~~~

A BigY700, actually tests for 838 STRs. But some values are missing. So FTDNA labels it as 700 to be on the safe, conservative side. I get 795 values, although I think that's above average. There are 727 BigY STRs. (838-111).

You do get a brief report. Like 9 out of 636. Which meant you and your match both had values on 636 of the BigY STRs and you had 9 mis-matches.
You can look at the values of the BigY STRs, and see if there is any patterns, but not too many people do that, at this time.

[Jim Barrett]

Oct - Nov 2022 sale

View in browser

Dear Group Project Administrators, Our Early Bird Sale is here! All sale pricing can be found below. As a reminder, please follow our group project bulk email guidelines when emailing project members. Thanks for all that you do on your projects! Happy fall! FamilyTreeDNA

[KATM]

JeffZ, what you wrote is true, and would work to get an idea of the Y-DNA haplogroup of the possible relative. But as james1994 stated in his original post, the possible relative has agreed to take a Y-DNA test. He may, or may not, be willing to do an autosomal test at a different company, then if results are promising for the haplogroup, test again at FTDNA to delve further with Big Y-700 or other Y-DNA testing. It depends on how willing the proposed tester is to do more tests at more companies. Even if he transfers his file from 23andMe or another company to FTDNA, that transfer is just the raw autosomal data, not the actual DNA sample. He'd have to give another sample to FTDNA so they could perform tests on it.

james1994 - If he only wants to give one sample, then the Y-37 test at FTDNA would seem to be the best solution, as then his sample is already at FTDNA and further testing can proceed. Just MAKE SURE that he does the swabbing/scraping very well, so the sample is of high quality for further testing. I speak from experience about that - I manage one kit where the tester's sample was insufficient to proceed to Big Y-700; it had sufficient DNA for the initial Family Finder and Y-67 tests, and an upgrade to Y-111, but no more, even with two vials. I kick myself for not having the Big Y done vs. the Y-111 at the time. Big Y-700 usually requires a good, preferably fresh sample. I was not present to observe how well he swabbed, and had to rely on other, more disinterested parties to supervise him getting the sample and then mailing it in. His sons do not want to do a DNA test, so I am stuck at Y-111 for this person, with his estimated Y haplogroup. A project manager predicted a lower branch, but it's nowhere near what Big Y could do. So the moral is to swab well, and follow the directions!

Currently, the regular price for Y-37 is $119, so it is indeed more expensive than an autosomal test, even when those are not on sale (as they seem to be more often than not!). The Big Y-700 is regularly $449, so is $330 more expensive than the Y-37. I haven't saved information about sale pricing as I did in the past, but during a sale the Big Y-700 might be $50 off, so about $399. It might be lower at Father's Day or even winter holiday sales. Looking at some prices from at least 2016-2019, the Y-37 used to be regularly priced at $169, so has come down a full $50 in price since then. For the Black Friday sale in 2022, FTDNA sold the Y-37 for $79, and the Big Y-700 for $379. Father's Day is not far off, and "DNA Day" is in April. Keep an eye out for sales.

[JeffZ]

Ancestry, MyHeritage, and 23andMe all include limited Y-DNA SNP testing. The FamilyFinder test also could support this but FTDNA has opted not to implement it. This is unfortunate as it could be a big plus for encouraging more advanced tests. It would probably hurt their SNP pack market though.

Even if there is no autosomal match, these tests would likely provide a more accurate answer than any predicted by Y-37 (also less expensive). A matched haplogroup could be enough to go ahead with the Big Y-700 test.

23andMe includes about twice the number of SNPs as the others and also reports the result without having to use an external extraction tool. They use an old haplotree, so the reported group may not be quite correct but the error would be the same for both tests if there is a match.

[KATM]

I hope this post doesn't overlap what Stevo wrote - I left my post written and forgot to post it for too long. Stevo has done a great job with his points and charts. I'll still post mine, for what it's worth:

james1994 Apologies, that was my mistake, and poor reading comprehension! You did say in your first post, in the first couple of sentences, that there is no common ancestor within the surname period. So with that now brought to my attention, it's probably unlikely that an autosomal test will be of use to you. I have three examples for the farthest back generation-wise to MRCA that I've seen in autosomal matches with kits that I manage:

• 7 generations back to the common ancestor for the match, and 5 generations back for the person whose kit I manage. They are 4th cousins, twice removed, and the common ancestor was born maybe 1770-1780s in Ireland.
• 7 generations back to the common ancestor for the match, and 7 generations back for me. We are 6th cousins this way; our common ancestral Maltese 5th great-grandparents were born in the early 1700s (based upon their marriage in 1729, as neither the match nor I have their birth dates).
• But I am also related to this same Maltese match as a 9th cousin via a second Maltese line, where the MRCA couple is 11 generations up for the match, and 10 generations for me! This ancestral couple was married by 1605. So it goes with an endogamous population.

A caveat: for the two latter (Maltese) examples, the match has done the research beyond my confirmed 3rd great-grandfather, which I trust due to the match's known personal connections to those who keep the records in Malta, from which he based his information. Although I trust his research, I do need to confirm the early generations to be truly sure.

Regarding Big Y-700, when we say the Y-111 is included: On the Help Center page "A Comparison of Our Y-DNA Tests" (in what used to be called the Learning Center, not sure when that name was changed), it explains that

The Big-Y 700 test includes both STR and SNP results and provides matches for both. In addition to the STR markers included in the Y-111, it provides a minimum of 589 additional markers, giving you a total of 700 STRs, though only the first 111 are used for matching. These additional markers can be useful for determining mutations unique to a lineage, clan, or patriarch.

So they use those first 111 STRs for Y-111 matching.

I manage a Big Y-700 kit which has had one update in its terminal SNP in the last year or two, moving from the previous SNP which was estimated at 608 CE, to the current SNP estimated as 978 CE. I expect that eventually, as more people do the Big Y-700, more men will match other private variants for that kit and the terminal SNP will change again, hopefully to get within a genealogical timespan.

I'm not aware of any formulas or calculators, etc. that would help with the probabilities, but from what I wrote above, I think you can see that Y-37 and Y-111, as STR tests, get you an estimated haplogroup. Doing higher STR level tests don't change the estimated haplogroup, but SNP testing will. Comparing STR testing to the Big Y-700: Big Y-700 tests both STRs and SNPs, but importantly also discovers new variants. When two or more men have the same variant, they form a new branch. Big Y-700 will refine your terminal SNP as more men test and others match your private variants. Your updated terminal SNPs will advance in time (to more recent centuries/decades) as this happens. STR tests can't do that.

For lowest cost, you could have your potential relative do an STR test at FTDNA, such as the Y-37, and you then would be able to see if he matches you at that level. If so, he would then share your estimated haplogroup. If the possible relative does a Y-37 and you find he is in the same estimated haplogroup as you, he and you could also do SNP testing to narrow down the branch. That would be a longer path, though, which is why we say do the Big Y-700 and be done with it. Keep an eye out for sales (Father's Day, end-of-year holiday sales).

But I would say that it would be best to get advice from a project manager for further tests. Join a project for your (uncommon) surname, if one exists, or, since you have an estimated haplogroup from your Y-111 test, join a haplogroup project for that main branch. Some haplogroups have STR packs, to test for sub-branches below the main haplogroup. The only glitch there is that you can then be in a cycle of getting more tests to get further out in the branches of your haplogroup.

To get what you want, to see where in the 600 year/30 generation window your MRCA would be, you would both need to do the Big Y-700, although it might not put you both in that timespan. Big Y-700 is much more expensive, so unless you are pretty confident you are related via that ancestor, I would hesitate to skip right to Big Y. But, if you either compare first with STR testing, or jump right to Big Y-700, what Big Y-700 will do is:

• tell you whether this potential relative and you share a private variant, which will place both of you in a new terminal SNP, or
• tell you that he has a nearby SNP, but not one that shares the same variant defining your SNP (meaning perhaps that you or one of your ancestors had one or more mutations since the common ancestor), or
• tell you that he is has a different terminal SNP than yours, and is even further away, or not related

You can take your estimated haplogroup you got from your Y-111 test, and check it on FTDNA's Y-Haplogroup tree. Whatever it is, you will be able to see many branches and twigs below it, and one of those twigs is where you will be if/when you do either SNP testing or the Big Y-700 test.

BTW - I am not any kind of Y-DNA expert, but I am just relating what I have learned from reading about it, and viewing webinars and videos on Y-DNA and other types of DNA. I believe what I've written above is true, and hope if I made any errors that someone will chip in and correct or refine my comments.

[Stevo]

I hesitate to throw in my two cents, since the answers have been so good already, but I will anyway.

I agree with the idea that you should find out if it's worth spending as much money as the Big Y-700 will cost before actually doing it. So, a Y-37 is probably the best way to start. However, based on what you've written thus far, James, it sounds like you and your potential Y-DNA relative are both going to have to go for the Big Y-700, that is, if you match at Y-37. Your relationship may not be close enough in time for an autosomal test to show, although one never knows. My best-ever, breakthrough Y-DNA match started out as a measly 9 cM match at Ancestry, but that was miracle territory: our Y-DNA MRCA was born about 1750.

FTDNA does report how far off your Big Y-tested matches are on the additional STRs, but you won't be all that interested in that, because the SNPs tell a much more accurate story. STRs are really yesterday's news, but STR testing is still around because it is an economical way for people to get their feet in the door. The future is in SNP testing.

I am attaching a couple of things that attempt to show how closely various STR matches might be related. Hope they're helpful.

STR matches and relatedness_genetic distance_dna.jpg

Y-DNA_111 y dna str marker_genetic distance and range of generations_David Vance.jpg

[james1994]

Thanks mabrams and KATM for your incredibly helpful insights - very much appreciated!

KATM - thanks for the suggestion of trying an autosomal test first. My understanding is that autosomal testing is only really helpful for identifying matches where the MCRA is 5 or 6 generations back, and I can rule this out through documentary evidence. So would it still be valuable to do an autosomal test?

I should have clarified in my initial post - but documentary evidence proves that me and my potential relative don't share a common ancestor within the past 9 generations. However, we do share a similar surname, so if we do share a recent common ancestor, I would expect that ancestor to be within the British surname period - i.e. for our MRCA to have lived sometime between c.1100 CE and c. 1700 CE. This would, by my rough calculations, be in the region of between 40 and 10 generations up the line.

Assuming we are a match, one of the main things I'd like to be able to do is estimate where in that 600 year/30 generation window our MRCA is placed. I know this will all come down to probabilities, but does anyone know of any data, formula, calculator, study, etc. that would help me in understanding the different probability outputs that I could expect from comparing Y-37 results vs Big-Y 700 results?

On a slightly different note, I was interested to see you both refer to Y-111 as being 'included' in the Y-700. I thought this was odd, as my understanding was that Y-700 tested for about 700 STRs. Going back to look on the website, I note that while the Y-700 test does indeed test '589+ bonus STR markers' that these are 'not used for matching purposes'. Does anyone know why FTDNA wouldn't use these additional markers for matching purposes, in the event that there is a match between two people who have both taken a Y-700 test? Would the similarities/differences in the additional 589 markers still be taken into account by the FTDNATiP tool?

Again, apologies if any of my questions result from my misunderstanding; and thanks, once again, for your help!