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Statistics on number of Y-DNA matches?

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  • Statistics on number of Y-DNA matches?

    I posted this on the wrong group yesterday. I think this is the correct group,

    I'm sure this is a FAQ but has anyone published statistics on the number of matches at each Y-DNA testing level? I'm an administrator for a couple of surname groups. One member who shares my surname has over 4200 matches at the Y-12 level and over 600 at the Y-37 level. I on the other hand, have 17 matches at the Y-12 level, 2 at Y-67 and none at any other level up to Y-111. I'd like to see some histograms over a large sample (entire Y-DNA testing database?) showing how many matches vs the number of people tested. Are there any stats out there? Thanks!

  • #2
    I don't recall seeing this sort of statistic. While the number of matches is going to depend very heavily on your individual "haplogroup" and how many men from that group have been tested, a summary table for the entire population who has taken the test would be of some interest. But there would need to be a separate table for each level of testing, something like "for the set of all those who have taken the Y-67 test, the number of matches with a distance of X, regardless of which test the matches took, is..." In effect, tables for the various cases of test taken and haplogroup constitute a way of describing how much variability exists in Y-DNA STR results and the results that different (haplo)groups can expect from different levels of testing.


    • #3
      I just posted here about the same thing (10 July 22). I have 10 matches at 37 markers but my supposed first cousin once removed has 588. Notwithstanding he may not actually be related to me but I found the difference in numbers surprising.


      • #4
        Remember to join the haplogroup projects. 1 step 12 marker matches are only shown if they are in the same project.

        I think the number of matches depends heavily on where your paternal line comes from. Many countries are undertested, and even if your earliest known paternal ancestor is from a well tested country, it is possible your paternal line hasn't been in that country for a long time.