Am I interpreting this right?

[wilsonLR]

My Dad had only one Y-DNA match and it was a different surname with genetic distance 2 (about 6 generations 90% according to TIP report).
Overnight another one arrived but with my Dad's surname (Wilson) and genetic distance 4 (about 10 generations 90% according to TIP report).
Looking at his advanced Y-DNA Matches, there 2 more Wilsons and the TIP report for both indicates a 90% common ancestor around 10 generations)

Is it fair to conclude that TIP evidence of Wilson ancestors 10 generations points to the non-Wilson Y-DNA match (6 generations to NCA) having the NPE?

[TwiddlingThumbs]

How many markers are these genetic distances for? 37? 67? 111?

[wilsonLR]

The genetic distances are for 67 markers.

[travers]

What Haplogroup is this?

[wilsonLR]

I-M253 is the haplo group of all the Wilson and non-Wilson matches.

[TwiddlingThumbs]

I think it is highly likely that the Wilson matches share a common ancestor within the genealogical time frame. The non-Wilson match could be an NPE or the result of convergent mutation (where people with different ancestors appear closely related because each line's STRs mutated over the generations in a way so that they closely match each other). For what it's worth, I think TiP probabilities are generally are too high and seem to underestimate the risk of convergence. Since FTDNA does not disclose the algorithm they use to calculate TiP probabilities, however, it is impossible to evaluate how sound it is.