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Why a Y25 match doesn't continue on Y37

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  • Why a Y25 match doesn't continue on Y37

    Hello there:

    I have the following question, I have a match on Y25 with Genetic Distance of 2, and the TIP report showed me this numbers:
    4 generations - 61.17%
    8 generations - 84.92%
    12 generations - 94.15%
    16 generations - 97.73%
    20 generations - 99.12%
    24 generations - 99.66%

    Then I decided to upgrade yo Y37, trying to confirm if the match continues with more markers, and this time the results was "no matches"; so what this means:

    1.- I should conclude that my Y25 was in fact a distant match?

    2.- So the probability numbers are still accurate? or should be modified because Y37 match is not confirmed.( I mean 4 generations should vary from 61.17% to a lower probability)

    Saludos and thanks in advance

  • #2
    A match at 25 markers is marginal at best.

    I also have a match at 25 markers, who was gone at 37 and more. The supposed match had tested to 111 markers and
    therefore no reasonable match even though his name matched.

    The Tip report is an estimate, nothing more.

    Comment


    • #3
      If there is a 61.17% probability that there is a common ancestor within 4 generations there is a 38.83% probability that there isn't a common ancestor within 4 generations.

      The TiP probabilities are based on the average mutation rates for 100s of people. You are looking at only two people. Are the mutation rates for the two of you average?

      Are the values correct? Yes. BUT, they should only be used as a rough guide.

      A 25 marker test can prove your aren't related but it can only suggest you might be related. How do you compare at 67 or 111 markers? Even 12 markers will prove you aren't related if yon are from different branches of the Haplotree.

      Comment


      • #4
        Thanks for your comments

        I appreciate your coments,I will upgrate to Y67, and see if I got any other match

        Comment


        • #5
          Just so you know, if you don't have a match at 37 markers then there is about an 80% chance, or higher, that you won't have a close match at 67 markers. At 67 markers there can be matches with a GD of 5 or more and the common ancestor could be from a thousand or more years ago.

          Comment


          • #6
            Thanks for the warning, I didn't realize that information, I will wait then until some Y37 shows

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by paco7425 View Post
              Thanks for the warning, I didn't realize that information, I will wait then until some Y37 shows
              If you are part of your surname and or haplogroup project you can check on what the others you are grouped with have tested to and the possibility of them showing as a match on the higher levels

              Comment


              • #8
                I'm part of a surname project and a regional project,and many members have already tested from Y12 to Y111,but on average mainly in Y37, but I feel I don't have any close match with them, and they don't have TIP reports to identify closest matches, so I think I will have more success on random matches than in projects, just one question, why many of my Y25 matches are not shown as Y12 matches?
                Thinking in the same way,is there any possibility that I could have some possible matches on Y67 and Y111? That are not nowadays shown as Y37? Just guessing

                Comment


                • #9
                  FTDNA's Learning Center

                  From FTDNA's Learning Center:
                  "On the Y-DNA – Matches page, relevant matches are shown. Depending on the testing level, these are:

                  Y-DNA12 Matches
                  11 out of 12 (A genetic distance of 1)*
                  12 out of 12 (A genetic distance of 0)
                  Y-DNA25 Matches
                  23 out of 25 (A genetic distance of 2)
                  24 out of 25 (A genetic distance of 1)
                  25 out of 25 (A genetic distance of 0)
                  Y-DNA37 Matches
                  33 out of 37 (A genetic distance of 4)
                  34 out of 37 (A genetic distance of 3)
                  35 out of 37 (A genetic distance of 2)
                  36 out of 37 (A genetic distance of 1)
                  37 out of 37 (A genetic distance of 0)
                  Y-DNA67 Matches
                  60 out of 67 (A genetic distance of 7)
                  61 out of 67 (A genetic distance of 6)
                  62 out of 67 (A genetic distance of 5)
                  63 out of 67 (A genetic distance of 4)
                  64 out of 67 (A genetic distance of 3)
                  65 out of 67 (A genetic distance of 2)
                  66 out of 67 (A genetic distance of 1)
                  67 out of 67 (A genetic distance of 0)
                  Y-DNA111 Matches
                  101 out of 111 (A genetic distance of 10)
                  102 out of 111 (A genetic distance of 9)
                  103 out of 111 (A genetic distance of 8)
                  104 out of 111 (A genetic distance of 7)
                  105 out of 111 (A genetic distance of 6)
                  106 out of 111 (A genetic distance of 5)
                  107 out of 111 (A genetic distance of 4)
                  108 out of 111 (A genetic distance of 3)
                  109 out of 111 (A genetic distance of 2)
                  110 out of 111 (A genetic distance of 1)
                  111 out of 111 (A genetic distance of 0)
                  * For Y-DNA12 matches, 11 out of 12 matches are only shown with both customers belong to the same group project.
                  However, to best serve our customers who are adopted, we provide at the Y-DNA12 level both 11/12 and 12/12 matching to the entire Family Tree DNA database to those in the Adoptee Project. This is because they cannot know the best Surname project to join in advance of testing."

                  If you are a genetic distance of 2 at 12 markers the other person will not be in you 12 marker match list, but if you are a genetic distance of 2 at 25 markers they will be in your 25 marker match list.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Thanks Jim, now it's more clear to me,Y25 matches should be in my Y12 matches if I only had a 1Genetic Distance in the markers analyzed, so it means my 2 GD,should be in the Y12 markers, because of that it showed as Y25 and not as Y12, and I should have a more GD that prevent them to show them as match in Y37, it also answer me my other question, upgrading Yanalysis could show me more matches taking into account other markers, but as someone already wrote the probability it's really small

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by paco7425 View Post
                      it also answer me my other question, upgrading Yanalysis could show me more matches taking into account other markers, but as someone already wrote the probability it's really small
                      The probability of a close match is small. You could end up with matches with a GD of 5 or more at 67 markers but those normally aren't from a common ancestor in the direct paternal line in the past 1,000 years.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Thanks Armando,I got it, in that case they wouldn't be any close match, just an ancient match, in fact almost everybody is related just taking into account oldest markers

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by paco7425 View Post
                          upgrading could show me more matches taking into account other markers, but as someone already wrote the probability it's really small
                          I'm not sure the % given is correct. I'd upgrade during a sale. You never know what will come along, match wise, at a later date.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Jim Barrett View Post
                            I'm not sure the % given is correct.
                            So you admit to not seeing enough results. It doesn't matter if it is 7% or 80%. The chances are low.

                            Originally posted by Jim Barrett View Post
                            I'd upgrade during a sale.
                            Nothing wrong with that now that he knows there is a small chance of getting a close match at 67 markers.

                            Originally posted by Jim Barrett View Post
                            You never know what will come along, match wise, at a later date.
                            If he ends up with a close 67 marker match at a later date it is highly likely to also be a match at 37 markers. But yes, if he already has the test result in and in the future someone gets a Y67 test as the initial test there is a match he will show as a 67 marker match. But that is for future matches and not people currently in the database.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Hello Jim and Armando

                              I really appreciate all your comments, now I'm aware that the possibility of a close match not having even a match in Y37 is almost inexistent.

                              So de accuracy of probability numbers is not so important in this case.

                              I will upgrade to Y67 during this year, but I know that I won’t find any significative match; but it doesn´t matter I can wait to see if in the future someone shows.

                              In fact, I did the first Y12 in 2007; I found strange matches with Surnames and Countries not expected, then last year I decided to expand to Y25 and this time I was contacted by a match in Ysearch.org who shares my surname with also a same regional background origin, he has a Y67 analysis, but at Y25 it showed a Genetic Distance of 4 to me, that’s why I decided to move to Y37 trying to refine the analysis of this match and see if we share more markers, and this time our GD increased from 4 to 10, so I think he is not related to me at all.

                              My intention is to find relatives of my Great Great Grand Father if possible; so I don’t know what GD number should I expect to have with them, that’s why the TIP report is interesting to me, because it gives you a relative time frame to follow.

                              saludos

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