Only matches at 12... why upgrade?

[Amerijoe]

We did the Y-DNA 37 test this year, but only have matches at the 12 market level. NONE in 25 or 37 marker level. Yet I am being encouraged to upgrade our test to 67 or higher. Why, if there are NO matches at 25 or 37, should I expect more at level 67 and above??

Karo, here is my experience regarding this matter over the last year. If you belong to an under tested group or a rare haplotype, your odds of additional matches are substantially reduced with further tests. Recently received a 1GD @ 25 markers. The balance 22 matches, GD 0 @ 12 markers. These results represent tests up to and including the BigY.

My conclusion, these tests are better for deep ancestry, beyond genealogical data, best suited for population genetics studies. I've gained a tremendous amount of info during my year's quest, but in reality, I'm still at the beginning, but that's O.K., because I knew the odds going in.

Should you test further? That depends on your particular interests only you can answer. My Y111 did produce two nulls which seem to be quite rare. Using this info, I've found others with this exact tandem mutation. It would for me, be interesting to find out how and when this mutation arrived in Great Britain? My search in this new direction would never have materialized without the Y111 test. This quest may be fruitless, but who knows, maybe a better direction will come to light.

[Jim Barrett]

We did the Y-DNA 37 test this year, but only have matches at the 12 market level. NONE in 25 or 37 marker level. Yet I am being encouraged to upgrade our test to 67 or higher. Why, if there are NO matches at 25 or 37, should I expect more at level 67 and above??

Who is encouraging you to upgrade? FTDNA always has a banner encouraging customers to upgrade Y-DNA to the next level. It is just one of their sales pitches. It is always possible that by upgrading you might find a match.

What is your Y-DNA Haplogroup? Some Haplogroups are more apt to have matches than others.

What is the origin of your paternal line? If you are from an area where only a few people have tested you are less apt to have matches.

[Frederator]

We did the Y-DNA 37 test this year, but only have matches at the 12 market level. NONE in 25 or 37 marker level. Yet I am being encouraged to upgrade our test to 67 or higher. Why, if there are NO matches at 25 or 37, should I expect more at level 67 and above??

Well, mutations are random. There's a chance, pretty hard to quantify, that you will have matches at the 67 marker level. I've seen it happen. That's not a guarantee, but it's a chance.

Besides which, you get much more confidence in the relationship prediction at 67 markers.

Finally, with holiday sale prices, now is probably the time to strike.

[Karo]

We did the Y-DNA 37 test this year, but only have matches at the 12 market level. NONE in 25 or 37 marker level. Yet I am being encouraged to upgrade our test to 67 or higher. Why, if there are NO matches at 25 or 37, should I expect more at level 67 and above??