Y-67 match, genetic distance 7

[astronamy7]

Hi,
We recently had our first Y-67 match, but the genetic distance is 7. I initially thought this may be too far back in time to research, but the TiP report gives very good odds:

Generations Percentage
1 5.16%
2 16.87%
3 31.83%
4 46.92%
5 60.31%
6 71.24%
7 79.69%
8 85.95%
9 90.45%
10 93.60%
11 95.77%
12 97.23%
13 98.20%
14 98.84%
15 99.26%
16 99.53%
17 99.70%
18 99.81%
19 99.88%
20 99.93%
21 99.96%
22 99.97%
23 99.98%
24 99.99%

This match does not share a common surname with me, but their family name appears in some of the locations that my ancestor lived. I'm thinking perhaps a non-paternity event occurred somewhere in my line (I'm assuming mine, because I also have another match with the same surname as this person, so if two of my matches share the same surname, I may be the odd one out).

Is it normal to have such a high TiP report with a GD of 7? My family is very well documented, so I'm having difficulty figuring out when this NPE event may have occurred. Anyone else have this issue? I've started working with my close match, but we haven't turned anything up yet.

[EBHIII]

My 67-7 Tip Results

I have one non-surname 67 match at 7 genetic distance - my percentages are somewhat lower than yours. I'm thinking differences on fast-changing markers might be taken into account.

1 0.00%
2 0.04%
3 0.28%
4 1.08%
5 2.87%
6 6.02%
7 10.70%
8 16.83%
9 24.15%
10 32.26%
11 40.73%
12 49.13%
13 57.13%
14 64.48%
15 71.03%
16 76.72%
17 81.55%
18 85.55%
19 88.82%
20 91.44%
21 93.52%
22 95.13%
23 96.38%
24 97.33%

"Someone else with the same Genetic Distance may have different probabilities, because the distance of 7 was prompted by mutations in different markers, with different mutation rates."

[astronamy7]

I have one non-surname 67 match at 7 genetic distance - my percentages are somewhat lower than yours. I'm thinking differences on fast-changing markers might be taken into account.

1 0.00%
2 0.04%
3 0.28%
4 1.08%
5 2.87%
6 6.02%
7 10.70%
8 16.83%
9 24.15%
10 32.26%
11 40.73%
12 49.13%
13 57.13%
14 64.48%
15 71.03%
16 76.72%
17 81.55%
18 85.55%
19 88.82%
20 91.44%
21 93.52%
22 95.13%
23 96.38%
24 97.33%

"Someone else with the same Genetic Distance may have different probabilities, because the distance of 7 was prompted by mutations in different markers, with different mutation rates."

Thanks for sharing! Yours is much lower than mine- so the markers must have made a big difference. Were you able to find a common ancestor with that match?

[mabrams]

It might not be an NPE.

If you go back 12 generations, that is about 300 years. It may be that your common Y ancestor precedes surnames in that country.

Even in the American colonies, names changed. One of my ancestors (Breckhoven) was a brewer in NY. His family, over 50 years, became the Brouwers or Brewers. Another NY family was renamed after their village in Holland.

Or perhaps your family encountered a patronymic naming system.

[EBHIII]

Thanks for sharing! Yours is much lower than mine- so the markers must have made a big difference. Were you able to find a common ancestor with that match?

No, wasn't able to -- presuming it pre-dates surname use...