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Family Tree DNA Time Predictor*

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  • robertmcm
    replied
    Originally posted by msc_44
    all this means is your line doesnt mutate quick so all your matches will be way back but mine mutates quick so all mine will be very close

    Well that point could be argued for my 66/67 match seperated by at least 8 generations (I am thinking it is 10 or 11 to MCRA).

    However a GD of 5 at 37 markers and a GD of 7 at 60 markers within our surname project could be manipulated to show otherwise. I also have a 35/37 match (missed on the fast markers) that is possibly closer than my 66/67 match in Scotland.

    So perhaps it could be said that my particular DNA and that of my 66/67 match in Scotland has not mutated much but

    1. Other lines possibly closer to me than this match have mutated more

    2. The MacMillan Group 1 ( at http://home.comcast.net/~mcmillanmai...1bResults.html )
    shows GD within the related group that is quite diverse. More so than other surname projects I have glanced at.

    Leave a comment:


  • vineviz
    replied
    Originally posted by msc_44
    all this means is your line doesnt mutate quick so all your matches will be way back but mine mutates quick so all mine will be very close
    There is no legitimate way to draw such an inference from the limited data presented in this thread.

    The single mutation between a father and his son (as in your case) tells you nothing about mutative history of your family. You would need much more data to reach any conclusions about that.

    Leave a comment:


  • msc_44
    replied
    To top it off I have a 66/67 match in Scotland and I am the 8th generation in my line to be in the States!
    all this means is your line doesnt mutate quick so all your matches will be way back but mine mutates quick so all mine will be very close

    Leave a comment:


  • vineviz
    replied
    Originally posted by msc_44
    Family Tree DNA Time Predictor* they deffently have to rework this thing because i have a 66/67 match with my dad and it say on 18.54% for 1 generation so thats deffently wrong. . . .
    Actually, that estimate appears to be accurate.

    Originally posted by scotdna
    I don't think any of the predictors factor in individual marker mutation rates which would effect TMRCA distance.
    The FTDNATiP uses individual mutation rate estimates for the first 37 markers and an average rate only for the last 30.

    Practically speaking, however, the impact of using individual mutation rate estimates is relatively small.

    Leave a comment:


  • robertmcm
    replied
    Well, I dont know

    I have a 60/67 match as well as a 32/37 match within the surname project I am a member of. I would hesitate to say we are not related because of the age of our surname in Scotland, and the fact that we match no one else up to a GD of 15/67 on YSearch.

    To top it off I have a 66/67 match in Scotland and I am the 8th generation in my line to be in the States!

    Robert McMillan
    YCKBK

    Leave a comment:


  • msc_44
    replied
    i just figured out something alright if you have close matches like 22/25 which is 88% so your probably not related but as long as you have 90% or more you are related so a 23/25 match would be related because its 92%

    and the same with higher marker like 33/37= 89% is no related but 34/37= 91% is related

    and 60/67= 89% is not related but 61/67= 91% is related

    so
    23/25 and higher are related
    34/37 and higher are related
    61/67 and higher are related

    so it's best to test all the way to 67 markers
    Last edited by msc_44; 5 February 2007, 12:57 PM.

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  • scotdna
    replied
    Originally posted by msc_44
    Family Tree DNA Time Predictor* they deffently have to rework this thing because i have a 66/67 match with my dad and it say on 18.54% for 1 generation so thats deffently wrong they need to put actual scores up there like a 66/67 marker match would be 98.50746268656716417910447761194% for 1 generation.
    I don't think any of the predictors factor in individual marker mutation rates which would effect TMRCA distance.

    Here are the mutation rates for R1b markers http://www.geocities.com/null439/GenDivByHG.htm

    scot

    Leave a comment:


  • Pleroma
    replied
    I was wondering about the accuracy of the time predictor but had no real reference points to justify my suspicion. Thanks for sharing your information. It's very helpful.

    Leave a comment:


  • msc_44
    started a topic Family Tree DNA Time Predictor*

    Family Tree DNA Time Predictor*

    Family Tree DNA Time Predictor* they deffently have to rework this thing because i have a 66/67 match with my dad and it say on 18.54% for 1 generation so thats deffently wrong they need to put actual scores up there like a 66/67 marker match would be 98.50746268656716417910447761194% for 1 generation.
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