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  • A question on probability...

    Here's a question on probabilities... I'm adopted and I have no records on my birth parents, so my last name could be anything. I recieved my 37 marker test and went to my "Y-DNA Matches" page. Under my 25 marker matches I have a significant amount of exact matches with a certain sirname or a variant of it. I don't have any exact matches on my 37 markers, but I do have two people of that same sirname that match at a distance of 2, and one person of the same sirname that matches at a distance of 1. Now, can these results be interpreted as that I actually belong to this sirname group? Or do I need more definetive proof (ie. paper trail, 67 marker test, etc)?

  • #2
    are you in an unusual haplogroup? That might increase the odds. A 36/37 is a very good match.

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    • #3
      If a 37-marker match shows up on your Y-DNA Matches page, it should have an icon next to it that looks like a wrench. When you click on that icon, you should get an FTDNAtip Report that tells you the probability of a common patrilineal ancestor with that person within a number of generations.

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      • #4
        For more general cases, look at Table 1 on this page:

        http://www.familytreedna.com/faq2.html

        It shows that a 36/37 match indicates a 95% probability of sharing a patrilineal ancestor within the last 10 generations. In Western Europe, surnames have been around longer than that.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by lgmayka
          For more general cases, look at Table 1 on this page:

          http://www.familytreedna.com/faq2.html

          It shows that a 36/37 match indicates a 95% probability of sharing a patrilineal ancestor within the last 10 generations. In Western Europe, surnames have been around longer than that.
          Just an interesting note: In the Netherlands surnames were not universally adopted until 1811 I believe. It was a decree from Napoleon. The Dutch didn't take old 'boney-parts' all that seriously and set about picking silly names like Borst (breast) and Kok anticipating they could drop them as soon as Napoleon got what was coming to him. You'll also see names like Zondervan which means "without surname" Piest which means to urinate and Naaktgeboren which means born naked.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by GvdM
            Just an interesting note: In the Netherlands surnames were not universally adopted until 1811 I believe. It was a decree from Napoleon. The Dutch didn't take old 'boney-parts' all that seriously and set about picking silly names like Borst (breast) and Kok anticipating they could drop them as soon as Napoleon got what was coming to him. You'll also see names like Zondervan which means "without surname" Piest which means to urinate and Naaktgeboren which means born naked.
            I've read my surname came from an Old English word "gatu" which means a gap between hills, but my ancestors came from the East Anglia district of England which is very flat. Why would someone adopt a surname for a geographical feature that does not exist in the area?

            My Hg is confirmed as I1b2a and that makes me think that gates may be derived from a Danish word. If I get it translated some day, I hope its something obscene.

            Jim Gates

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