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y67 gd/5 match!

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  • y67 gd/5 match!

    Hello,

    I have a Genetic Distance 5 match on y67. Unfortunately, He has not tested on y111 or FF and I couldn't contact him for now. (on y12 gd was 0; on y25 gd was 2; on y37 gd was 4)

    May anyone give me a detailed interpretation for the match?? (How many generations is most possible, a y111 prediction,... etc.)
    And any suggestions?

    Both R1b-m12135 (most probably y30217).


    GD by Markers; DYS449:1, DYS464c:1, DYS576:1, CDYa:1, DYS557:1.

    TİP Report on y67:

    1 0.8%
    2 4.55%
    3 11.95%
    4 22.22%
    5 33.97%
    6 45.86%
    7 56.91%
    8 66.57%
    9 74.64%
    10 81.12%
    11 86.17%
    12 90.02%
    13 92.89%
    14 94.99%
    15 96.51%
    16 97.59%
    17 98.34%
    18 98.87%
    19 99.24%
    20 99.49%
    21 99.66%
    22 99.77%
    23 99.85%
    24 99.9%

    Thanks!
    Last edited by gwhite17; 17th May 2018, 08:39 AM.

  • #2
    Your TiP percentage hits 50% about 7 generations ago, so that is the "best guess" for how long ago you have a common ancestor. But the margin of error is pretty huge. The TiP report also says there is about a 5% chance you have a common ancestor within 2 generations and about a 5% chance you have a common ancestor more than 14 generations ago, which means that there is only a 90% chance your common ancestor is within the range or 3-14 generations ago and a 10 chance it is outside of that range. That is assuming, of course, that it is not a false positive. At least for some haplotypes, people get lots of false matches even at 67 markers, for which TiP shows just as high probabilities as true matches.

    As an example, my closest match is also a gd of 5 at 67 markers, with someone with my surname. TiP says we have a 50% chance of a common ancestor 10 generations ago. In fact, we have solid paper trails showing we have a common ancestor 7 generations ago. My matches at 67 markers, however, also include 2 with a gd of 6 and 14 with a gd of 7. These additional matches include 12 different surnames, none of which are close to my surname and are probably all false matches. For most of these false matches, TiP says that there is a 50% chances we share a common ancestor within 8 generations (sooner than my one true match). In fact, it is mostly likely that my common male ancestor with these false matches is well before the genealogical time frame.

    Your current STR results by themselves won't tell you whether your match is a true match or a false match. 111 markers may help, but SNP testing or genealogical research would probably be need to produce definitive results.

    Note that "convergent mutations" which can cause men who are only very distantly related (eg 1000+ years ago) to appear much more closely related (ie create a false match) is known to be a particular problem in certain haplogroups, including R1b, which both you and I are in, so, absent SNP testing or genealogical support, there is a significant chance that your match is a false match, as 16 out of 17 of my 67-marker matches were. See ISOGG article on "Convergence".
    Last edited by TwiddlingThumbs; 17th May 2018, 10:16 AM.

    Comment


    • #3
      Is this a match which matches your surname?

      Just keep in mind GD and TiP reports are based on average STR mutation rates. One can have a lower then average or higher then average STR mutation rate.

      For example my line has a higher then average mutation rate, with in the last 2 Generations.
      My Father and his paternal 1st cousin are a GD of 4@67 markers, their common ancestor is their grandfather.
      They share 942cM on the FamilyFinder test (1st cousin range)

      Their TiP report is as follows
      Generations Percentage
      1 4.8%
      2 15.88%
      3 30.27%
      4 45.01%
      5 58.31%
      6 69.35%
      7 78.03%
      8 84.57%
      9 89.34%
      10 92.74%
      11 95.12%
      12 96.75%
      13 97.86%
      14 98.6%
      15 99.09%
      16 99.41%
      17 99.62%
      18 99.76%
      19 99.85%
      20 99.9%
      21 99.94%
      22 99.96%
      23 99.98%
      24 99.99%
      Last edited by prairielad; 17th May 2018, 10:16 AM.

      Comment


      • #4
        Thank you for the article!

        As i can see, this is possible but as i understand, at y67 it is more rare to happen but still possible.. Also GD5 is a good match for not to underestimate. right?

        It is less likely to occur at 67 markers, though a case has been reported of two 67-marker haplotypes with a genetic distance of 6, which were found to be in different R1b subclades.[2] If convergence is a possibility then it is recommended to upgrade to a minimum of 67 markers and to order SNP testing to help rule out the coincidental matches which will have no genealogical relevance.

        ''....The haplotypes which are most affected are likely to be those which are closest to the modal haplotype for the haplogroup, such as people who match the Western Atlantic Modal Haplotype or the so called Niall of the Nine Hostages haplotype.
        I am in a branch of ''Armenian Model Haplotype'' I have almost no matches. I Think on this line, ''evolutionary convergence'' is more less happening.

        What do you think?

        Originally posted by TwiddlingThumbs View Post
        Your TiP percentage hits 50% about 7 generations ago, so that is the "best guess" for how long ago you have a common ancestor. But the margin of error is pretty huge. The TiP report also says there is about a 5% chance you have a common ancestor within 2 generations and about a 5% chance you have a common ancestor more than 14 generations ago, which means that there is only a 90% chance your common ancestor is within the range or 3-14 generations ago and a 10 chance it is outside of that range. That is assuming, of course, that it is not a false positive. At least for some haplotypes, people get lots of false matches even at 67 markers, for which TiP shows just as high probabilities as true matches.

        As an example, my closest match is also a gd of 5 at 67 markers, with someone with my surname. TiP says we have a 50% chance of a common ancestor 10 generations ago. In fact, we have solid paper trails showing we have a common ancestor 7 generations ago. My matches at 67 markers, however, also include 2 with a gd of 6 and 14 with a gd of 7. These additional matches include 12 different surnames, none of which are close to my surname and are probably all false matches. For most of these false matches, TiP says that there is a 50% chances we share a common ancestor within 8 generations (sooner than my one true match). In fact, it is mostly likely that my common male ancestor with these false matches is well before the genealogical time frame.

        Your current STR results by themselves won't tell you whether your match is a true match or a false match. 111 markers may help, but SNP testing or genealogical research would probably be need to produce definitive results.

        Note that "convergent mutations" which can cause men who are only very distantly related (eg 1000+ years ago) to appear much more closely related (ie create a false match) is known to be a particular problem in certain haplogroups, including R1b, which both you and I are in, so, absent SNP testing or genealogical support, there is a significant chance that your match is a false match, as 16 out of 17 of my 67-marker matches were. See ISOGG article on "Convergence".

        Comment


        • #5
          I am used to matches with a GD of 1 or 2 at 67 markers. My cousin has only one with a GD of 3 and that one has the same surname. All those at GD of 1 or 2, who have an ancestor listed have the same surname or are descendants of one man with a different surname recognized as the result of a non-paternal event.

          After the GD of 3, matches have different surnames and I doubt that they share a common ancestor within a genealogical time-frame.

          None of this helps in determining the identity of my mother's 3rd great-grandfather. All it does is tell me that he is probably descended some how or another from a man who immigrated to America from Scotland in 1683. But I don't think it proves that he was. He could have been descended from any male relative of the immigrant, who happened to share a male ancestor in the same patrilineal line.

          My cousin has 8 matches with a GD of 1 and 11 with a GD of 2.
          Last edited by MoberlyDrake; 17th May 2018, 02:56 PM.

          Comment


          • #6
            And regarding all the matches with a GD of 1, it is my cousin himself who has the mutation that none of the others have.

            Comment


            • #7
              I have only a few Y-67 matches that could possibly be considered "close". I believe the closest one ever found is GD=4. Those "close" matches turned out to be on nearby but distinct branches of the haplotree in the Big Y test. In other words, GD=4 or 5 may not indicate a close enough relationship to be genealogically meaningful. In my opinion, nothing to get excited about.

              Comment


              • #8
                I have two 64/67 matches, same surname. TiP estimate is roughly 84% @ 8 generations for both. Actual TMRCA is 8 gens for one and 7 gens for the other.

                Comment


                • #9
                  And there is a case of GD=2 at 67 markers, reported here between a father and his son. The father reported, and later posted once again confirming that.

                  You are dealing with probabilities, not 2 + 2 = 4


                  Mr. W.
                  Last edited by dna; 17th May 2018, 09:08 PM. Reason: improved?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    There is a GD of 2 between my cousin and his 3rd cousin once removed. Each has a difference of 1 mutation from the 8 men with whom they both share a GD of 1, but since they have mutations in different markers, they have a GD of 2 from each other.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Finally we upgraded 67 to 111. on y111, gd 13 is tested..

                      generation prediction:
                      1 0%
                      2 0%
                      3 0%
                      4 0.05%
                      5 0.23%
                      6 0.8%
                      7 2.1%
                      8 4.51%
                      9 8.34%
                      10 13.72%
                      11 20.54%
                      12 28.5%
                      13 37.18%
                      14 46.1%
                      15 54.8%
                      16 62.93%
                      17 70.23%
                      18 76.56%
                      19 81.89%
                      20 86.25%
                      21 89.73%
                      22 92.45%
                      23 94.52%
                      24 96.08%

                      Can someone interpret the results?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        The percentage for generation N is the estimated cumulative probability that the common ancestor is N generations or less back from the present. In other words, if the assumptions built into the computation are correct, there is a 55 percent chance that the common ancestor is no more than 14 generations back from the person who was tested.

                        If you assume 25 years per generation, 14 generations puts you back somewhere around 1650, and only about even odds for a common ancestor. For most of us, a result like this is not much help!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by dna View Post
                          And there is a case of GD=2 at 67 markers, reported here between a father and his son. The father reported, and later posted once again confirming that.

                          You are dealing with probabilities, not 2 + 2 = 4


                          Mr. W.
                          Indeed, and averages are a part of that. So for every rock solid stable Y-DNA line, there is going to another one mutating all over the place, even if it is simply playing ping-pong on a particular (set of) marker position(s) from generation to generation.

                          The "Average Experience" is that those more extreme outcomes don't happen. But that's on average, which doesn't help the people who are on a family line that gets to be balancing out one extreme or the other.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            ...And I now am in the "GD2 with own father club" by Y37. DYS464 and CDY zapped us. For my terminal SNP matches on the BigY, DYS464, CDY, and their very close friend DYS459 put me at GD7 & GD9 just by the three of them alone. (Yes, somebody has a lot of repeats on DYS464, FTDNA in one of their write-ups even flat out states they are where they are in the panel to help "break up" distant relations because of their high mutation rates)
                            Last edited by bartarl260; 9th January 2019, 02:16 AM.

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