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  • Confused on Ysearch.org matching results

    My Uncle a Stephens/Stevens has results posted for the 37 marker Y-chromosone tests at www.ysearch.org. There are 3 other separate line Stephens males being compared there that we knew of and results show matching of 23 of 25 or higher and 34 of 37 or higher leading the surname administrator to indicate that close relatonships are present here in all 4. My Uncles Stephens/Stevens line is documented back to 1725. The surprising thing that I am writing about here is that he at marker level 37 is matching very closely to surnames Vaughn, Davis and Hooper. This confused our group of researchers as to what this may mean. We don't know our immigrant or his country of origin. We have been notified by FTDNA that he is definately of group R1b.
    My Uncle's mother told him that we are of Scotch-Irish origin but the groups genealogical research indicates we may be from English origin.
    I would much appreciate some comments on the above situation and any suggestions as how to proceed. I am especially interested on comments as to why we closely match 4 different surnames when we compare my Uncles ID and after we asked at ysearch.org for a report that shows close matches to him at 37 marker level and 25 marker levels.
    My Mother is my Uncles sister.

    Ed Martin

  • #2
    I suggest that you explore the matches. Find out if they were in the same locale as your Stephens ancestors. I suspect that at least one or more of these might be a case of surname switch -who knows which the original was.

    Timothy Peterman

    Comment


    • #3
      37 marker matching

      We have found that my Uncle (Stephens) matches 33 of 37 to another Stephens that we have been in contact with and the other Stephens male has done his paper genealogy research back into Scotland. I am trying now to understand specifically what this close result may mean to us. It sounds to me from what little I know that we must tie to his line at some point and I am wondering how far backward the matching may have occured and if the 33 of 37 matching is a real strong indication of a MRCA somewhere.
      Can someone please help and offer any comments on this? Any suggestions on specific course of action to follow? We are at a brick wall in 1725 genealogically in Johnston County, NC.Thanks!

      Comment


      • #4
        FTDNA actual probabilities

        Comparison Allen and Don at 37 markers from FTDNA site

        FTDNATiP™ Report
        Family Tree DNA Time Predictor*
        Version 1.1 - Patent Pending



        In comparing 37 markers, the probability that Allen W. Stephens and Donald E. Stephens shared a common ancestor within the last...
        100 years
        is

        11.55%
        200 years
        is

        46.00%
        300 years
        is

        75.16%
        400 years
        is

        90.45%
        500 years
        is

        96.74%
        600 years
        is

        98.97%





        Comparison of Allen and Jerry Stephens at 25 markers at FTDNA

        FTDNATiP™ Report
        Family Tree DNA Time Predictor*
        Version 1.1 - Patent Pending



        In comparing 25 markers, the probability that Allen W. Stephens and Jerry Stephens shared a common ancestor within the last...
        100 years
        is

        7.58%
        200 years
        is

        28.12%
        300 years
        is

        50.88%
        400 years
        is

        69.27%
        500 years
        is

        81.92%
        600 years
        is

        89.83%



        Comparison of Allen and Trevor at 25 markers at FTDNA

        FTDNATiP™ Report
        Family Tree DNA Time Predictor*
        Version 1.1 - Patent Pending



        In comparing 25 markers, the probability that Allen W. Stephens and Mr. Trevor J. Stephens shared a common ancestor within the last...
        100 years
        is

        7.01%
        200 years
        is

        26.47%
        300 years
        is

        48.65%
        400 years
        is

        67.06%
        500 years
        is

        80.10%
        600 years
        is

        88.49%



        My observation from this at FTDNA is that our actual paper documented time to MRCA Elias and Moab of 204 and 250 years shows up as a 30% chance for Jerry/Allen and a 37% (avg of 26 and 28 % shown in the report) for Trevor to Uncle Allens line. We know that the actual percent is 100% at the respective 204 and 250 years cited. So this does not give me confidence in their reports and comparison statistics and results!

        If we look at Allen compared to Don Stephens at 37 markers we get a much higher percentage earlier. At a little over 200 years we get a 50% predicted MRCA chance or a time period similar to our Elias generation. I don't know who the equivalent Elias is in Don Stephens line about 1800. This MRCA is probably actually earlier and 50% chance needs to be elevaetd to find him to a higher percentage.

        Comment


        • #5
          That is simply the nature of statistics. Even a 37/37 match will not give you a guarantee of a MRCA at any particular time frame. The calculation is accurate in saying 30%; but if you happen to fall into that 30%, then for you as an individual it is 100%. Just like going to Vegas. The chance of winning is small, but for any individual you either win or you don't.

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