Degree of Certainty

[Mudgeeclarke]

I've read the relevant FAQs regarding mtDNA matches, GDs etc but would still appreciate a small clarification from someone smarter than me (which is pretty much every member here).

I am U3b2a, a somewhat rare HG in the database - at this stage. Notwithstanding I have several good matches at HVR1, 1+2, and one at FMS CR. It is this last match I am interested in. From what I read, a GD3 at CR is worth following up, and I have tried, but my match is adamant that this level of match means nothing in a genealogical sense. I beg to differ, but I have no solid argument.

I'd like to know a timeframe for such a match, maybe with a probability factor - 50% at x hundreds of year, 90% at x thousands ?

My match does not have an entry at Mitosearch, but you can find me at UJJRA.

I'm not clutching at straws here, and if the science also tells me it is many thousands of years, given mtDNA slow mutations, that will be fine, too.

Anyone?

[Rebekah Canada]

Rebekah the mtDNA Spoil-Sport Strikes Again.

Hi,

You can do 50% of the time each difference will be about 1,500 years old +/- 1,500 years. 3 * 1,500 = 4,500 +/- 4,500 years. Ballpark estimates only.

...From what I read, a GD3 at CR is worth following up, and I have tried, but my match is adamant that this level of match means nothing in a genealogical sense. I beg to differ, but I have no solid argument.

I'd like to know a timeframe for such a match, maybe with a probability factor - 50% at x hundreds of year, 90% at x thousands ?...

[Mudgeeclarke]

Oh !

Hi,

You can do 50% of the time each difference will be about 1,500 years old +/- 1,500 years. 3 * 1,500 = 4,500 +/- 4,500 years. Ballpark estimates only.

Okey dokey. I thought that a 3 at FMS would be a bit closer than that, under 1000, maybe. Too bad. It is what it is. Thanks.

My mtDNA matches are interesting geographically, at least ... Pretty much a broad, straight line from Turkey, the Caucasus, to Sweden, up the Rhine valley. Now, back to my Y-DNA matches ...