Match or not ? Opinions wanted

[Paul_Sheats]

Please visit my results page (link below) and tell me if you think this could be a possible match or not. There is a genetic distance of 4 between members S-2 and S-5, with similar haplogroups (one estimated, one confirmed). Three of the four marker differences between these members are on fast mutating markers. Has anyone seen an 8/12 match that remained a distance of 4 or so when 37 markers were tested/compared.

Sheets results page

This is my closest surname match so far, and I'd like the other member to upgrade. I'm just wondering if it's conceivable that there would be a close match at 37, when we're already off by 4.

Thanks.
Paul

[GvdM]

Please visit my results page (link below) and tell me if you think this could be a possible match or not. There is a genetic distance of 4 between members S-2 and S-5, with similar haplogroups (one estimated, one confirmed). Three of the four marker differences between these members are on fast mutating markers. Has anyone seen an 8/12 match that remained a distance of 4 or so when 37 markers were tested/compared.

Sheets results page

This is my closest surname match so far, and I'd like the other member to upgrade. I'm just wondering if it's conceivable that there would be a close match at 37, when we're already off by 4.

Thanks.
Paul

Hey Paul,

Depends on how far back your going. They are all fast movers but 1. That one being 390 and that is my problem with saying yes, I do not think it will fly. I had an 11-12 run out to 66-67 but I have never seen an 8-12 do it. That is not saying it isn't possible. I would upgrade but don't get your hopes up. 12 markers are not really worth much except getting an idea on haplotype.

How is that for waffling?????

[Paul_Sheats]

I think I knew the answer before I posted, but on the other hand, I've heard stories of 9/12 matches ending up 33/37 with a paper trail indicating they were related. So, you never know, but yeah, I'm not getting my hopes up.

It seems strange to me that with 5 members so far, nobody matches anyone else in the project yet. I guess I will suggest an upgrade for the other member, but also point out that the odds are against us having a common ancestor within the last 20,000 years or more.

The ftdnaTip does take into account the mutation rate, correct?

[Jim Barrett]

Paul,

I attended the FTDNA conference in Houston two years ago. One of the other project administrators at the conference had several members in his project who had a relative high number of mismatches on 12 markers. When they upgraded, and I don't remember the number they upgraded to, much less the maximum available at that time, they didn't have any additional mismatches and were have good success in building their paper trail.

It is possible. The only way to find out is to upgrade and search for the paper trail. Good luck!