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12-marker, 62 exact matches

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  • 12-marker, 62 exact matches

    We started my brother's Y-chromosome test at NG and then transferred to FTDNA, where we're getting him the 67 marker test now, due in Batch 412.

    But in the meantime, I was wondering -- is 62 exact matches from his 12-marker test a lot -- or a little?

    I'm assuming when they come back there will be many fewer. Just wondering what to expect. Thanks.

  • #2
    In addition, I was just looking over his "Recent Ancestral Origins" results, and there they only show 43 exact matches for his 12-marker test.

    Plus, of the country of origin percentages, none of them even approach significant (2%). The highest percentage of any of the countries is 1/10 of a percent.

    How will the 67-marker test affect the "recent ancestral origin" results?
    Last edited by Wilma Wildcat; 16 May 2011, 11:40 AM.

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    • #3
      Interesting to see how individual match numbers can differ so much, depending on all the variables. In my case I ended up with a huge number of exact 12 marker matches - over 1300. All part of being a common 'R1b', I suppose. At 25 markers I had no exact matches, and just 4 at genetic distance 1. At 37 markers and beyond, I have no matches of any kind. Not totally unexpected, with a surname that has no other DNA test records at all to match up with, I suppose.

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      • #4
        Wow, 1300 -- now, see, that was more like what I would have expected. So now I'm wondering whether his test is going to do us any good, with so few.

        I'm thinking it's kind of odd, because he has what seems like a common haplogroup: R1b, M343 (Subclade R1b1a2, M269).

        When I was checking every day at NG to see if the results were reported, one day they showed a message that they couldn't determine his group and would have to retest.

        But then the next time I checked, I guess they must have re-examined the results; because they posted the above haplogroup.

        The family name is Ferguson, and so I went to the Ferguson group through this website; but we only matched with one individual -- and at a distance of 1.

        Maybe I'm assuming, but there are a bajillion Fergusons and very many who seem concerned with their heritage. I'd think he'd be matching exactly with someone somewhere. But no Fergusons in his exact matches.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Wilma Wildcat View Post
          But in the meantime, I was wondering -- is 62 exact matches from his 12-marker test a lot -- or a little?
          I'm haplogroup R1b and have 1300+ matches at 12 markers. I have a friend who's haplogroup Q and has 0 matches at 12 markers. So it's kind of hard to say if 62 is a lot or little.

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          • #6
            I am Haplogroup R1b and only had 12 exact at 12, 13 at gd1 at 25, 2 at gd 4 at 37 and 1 at gd6 at 67. So never can tell.

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            • #7
              I included his haplogroup above ^ -- R1b, M343 (Subclade R1b1a2, M269).

              Seems like a common one; why so few?

              I just checked Ysearch, and he has about 40 there.

              Edit: Oops, sorry Dumbl -- crossed with you. That was for k.o.

              Yeah...if you can get one at 67, that would be at least some satisfaction.

              I'm kind of concerned there are none with our surname; should I be?
              Last edited by Wilma Wildcat; 16 May 2011, 12:25 PM.

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              • #8
                What about this: most of his matches occur with individuals in the early settlement areas of the US (Virginia, Maryland, North Carolina). Next up would be England.

                And from traditional geneology, I can see the family has stayed in the area around the Smoky Mountains for generations. I think we've been here in the US a long time; would a few hundred years be enough for a Y-DNA mutation?

                Oh, wait; that wouldn't account for the matches abroad...
                Last edited by Wilma Wildcat; 16 May 2011, 12:55 PM.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Wilma Wildcat View Post
                  would a few hundred years be enough for a Y-DNA mutation?
                  Yes, definitely. The probability of mutation isn't based on the length of time, but the number of generations. And the old rule of thumb, 1 chance in 500, is only an average, across all the markers. But individual marker mutation rates vary quite a bit. The fastest mutating markers, CDY A & B, average almost 1 in 28.

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                  • #10
                    I'm in the same haplogroup and subclade as your brother -- R1b, M343 (Subclade R1b1a2, M269) -- with a very common surname, "Watson," yet have only 24 exact matches at 12 markers, and none of those share my surname.

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