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Understanding genetic distance in terms of time

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  • Understanding genetic distance in terms of time

    I am trying to understand genetic distance in relation to time. I suppose I could have posted this in the DNA and genealogy section but it occurred to me in reference to a discussion about the age of M269.

    I am trying to put the following information into some sort of time reference:

    1. I ran a ysearch with the parameters of no more than 1 gd on each marker of the first 37 markers I tested. As you might imagine, Y-search timed out the search, but the data struck me. Never got out of the 67 matches where my nearest match was 8 and my furthest match was 24.

    2. That is almost the same spread when I ran a compare with the 47 or so live bodies in the S29/U198 Group on y-search where my nearest match at 67 was 8 (and the same person) and my furthest match at 67 was 26. My furthest at 25 was 15.

    4. I also ran a ysearch on the U106 haplogroup. Turned up 384 entries. The spread there among the U106 haplogroup reached 18 out of 37 markers. I did not check to see if I was included. Probably not because that result has not yet been uploaded by FT DNA come to think about it.

    5. According to the FT DNA RA chart, I have no matches any where in the world that are significant indicators (2% threshold) for ancestral origin at 25 markers, 37 markers, or 67 markers. The only time I reach that threshold is at 1 gd at 12 markers- in Denmark. At that same level I range from .5% to 1.7% in countries from Iceland to Romania to Greece to Iran. Almost no European nation is left out, plus Turkey and Iran and, oh, Vietnam.

    I suppose I could say, then, that the most likely nation of ancestral origin is Denmark, but I am not sure how significant 2% is on a 1 gd at 12 marker match, but the question on my mind at the moment is not Ancestral origin but putting these numbers into a time reference. The role Ancestral origin has to play it that is it strikes me as significant that there is no significant indicator of ancestral origin outside that one entry at 1 gd on the 12 marker test.

    How old is MY S29? I don't mean how old do articles argue S29 is. I mean, given the min and max of 8 and 24 gd at 67 markers and 15 at 25 markers, how much time separates me from earliest common ancestor with the entire bunch of the haplogroup. Note I have no surname matches. I have seen a formula that suggested a 6 gd match at 37 was 1200 years and another that suggested it was no more than 500 years. If a 6 gd match at 37 is 1200 years, what is a 24 at 67 or a 15 at 25?

    I know the accepted conclusion is that U106 is older than S29/U108 because every S29 who has tested for U106 tests positive but not everyone who tests positive for U106 tests positive for S29. What I don't understand is why that does not indicate the reverse. I am further confused by the nearly identically span on a sample not tied to haplogroup.

    I don't have a theory. I have a puzzlement.
    Last edited by Deirwha; 3 January 2009, 09:52 PM.
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