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Determining probabilities of distant common ancestor

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  • Determining probabilities of distant common ancestor

    I am told that if there are more than 4 or so mis-matches out of 37 on Y-chromosome analysis, relationship is unlikely. However, with the same surname and 29/37 matches, all mismatches by only one unit, up or down, I find it hard to believe that the odds of this happening are not extremely low for random individuals. Can anyone comment on this, please?

  • #2
    Based on the Family Tree DNA Time Predictor, if you match someone with the same surname on 29 of 37 markers, there is 44% to 53% probability that you share a common ancestor within 24 generations. See http://blairgenealogy.com/dna/FTDNATiP.html.

    John

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    • #3
      Thank you

      Thanks you very much - I had not seen that data. I hope our extended family will eventually be able to add to the knowledge you have provided. We need many, many more samples!

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