Police Agency profiles using autosomal dna

[Brunetmj]

This web site apparently uses autosomal DNA results to create profiles used by police agencies.

http://www.csfs.ca/pplus/profiler.htm

After entering my values it came back with the results below.
Because I am still new to the statistics behind this science I really don't know what it suggesting?
Is it saying that I match 1 out of 8.41 of Canadian Caucasians?
What does the E18 mean?

RCMP Saskatchewan Native population is one in 1.12E17
Canadian Combined Caucasian population is one in 8.41E18
RCMP Japanese population is one in 6.45E19
Northern Ontario Native population is one in 3.72E19
RCMP Salishan (Coastal BC) Native population is one in 3.21E17
RCMP Texas African-American population is one in 2.99E20

FBI Apache Aboriginal population is one in 1.70E18
FBI African-American population is one in 1.27E20
FBI Caucasian population is one in 6.92E18

[JamesKelley]

That is just police code for "Watch this guy, he's trouble."

Just kidding.

The E looks like an exponent.

What does the E18 mean?

[aeduna]

Is it saying that I match 1 out of 8.41 of Canadian Caucasians?
What does the E18 mean?

RCMP Saskatchewan Native population is one in 1.12E17
Canadian Combined Caucasian population is one in 8.41E18

Its scientific notation for very small or very large numbers - 1.12E17 means 1.12 * 10^17

This translates as:
RCMP Saskatchewan Native population is one in 112000000000000000
Canadian Combined Caucasian population is one in 8410000000000000000
etc

Can't help you with what that means in terms of the website

Damien

[Brunetmj]

[HTMLCanadian Combined Caucasian population is one in 8410000000000000000][/HTML]
Well looks like they are going to have a lot of problems finding me. lol

[Brunetmj]

Oh no wait! That means if they found another sample of my DNA, say on a bottle of good Canadian beer, I would be easy to match!
That's it. Going to stay out of Canada .

[JamesKelley]

Oh no wait! That means if they found another sample of my DNA, say on a bottle of good Canadian beer, I would be easy to match!
That's it. Going to stay out of Canada .

I might pass you on the border, the Americans are more interested in finding me.

Here is some info about their calculations:

RCMP Combined Caucasian : 79 from Edmonton, 85 from Vancouver = 164 persons (328 allele counts)
RCMP Northern Ontario Aboriginal: 129 persons (258 allele counts), 128 for Cofiler.
RCMP Saskatchewan Aboriginal: 105 persons (210 allele counts), 104 for Cofiler.
RCMP Salishan (BC) Aboriginal: 104 persons (208 allele counts)
RCMP Japanese : 113 from Kyoto region and 59 from Aomori region = 173 individuals (346 allele count)
RCMP Texas African-American: 151 from Fort Worth Texas region (302 allele count)
CFS = Centre of Forensic Sciences, Toronto, Ontario
CFS Caucasian: 293 individuals (586 allele count)
CFS African-American: 179 individuals (358 allele caount)
CFS Asian: 195 individuals (390 allele count)
CFS East Indian: 167 individuals (334 allele count)
ABD-Caucasian 200*: persons (400 allele counts)
ABD-African-American*: 195 persons (390 allele counts)

[Brunetmj]

Ok I think I know what these calculations are used for.
Say DNA was found at a crime scene and I am arrested for that crime. My DNA is tested and it matches the DNA found at the scene. Then the question is asked what is the probability that we have the right guy. If I am caucasion the answer is that the odds of it being another caucusion are
only 1 in 8410000000000000000. If I was a native American the odds of it being another native American is 1 chance in 112000000000000000.

When everything is submitted the next page shows a line for the officer to sign. So it is an official site. And it is on the Internet so we know it's true! (a joke).
Does that sound probable ?

[Javelin]

Yes. The CODIS markers are used to distinguish between individuals for forensic reasons (such as to rule someone out or to provide strong evidence of their being on the scene of a crime), rather than distinguish between populations. DNA Tribes attempts to do the latter, but with very uneven results.

CODIS autosomal STRs can also be used for relationship testing to establish that someone must be, must not be, or could possibly be closely related to someone else. In that sense they can be used not only for identification (such as to provide evidence that an unrecognizable body is a certain person by testing both the body and the alleged victim's parent, child, or sibling and comparing the results) but for paternity testing. In both these cases, though, they are generally part of a larger set of tests that can include one or more of ySTR, mtDNA HVR, or X-STR testing.

The gap in accuracy between DNA Tribes' results and people's known ancestry suggests that if police relied literally on autosomal markers to create a profile of a suspect, they would be looking for the wrong person much of the time.

[rainbow]

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/lab/codis/codis-and-ndis-fact-sheet

the codis canadian database is canadian. the 13 codis fbi usa database is american. dnatribes analysis is based on 27 str (54 alleles) and their data comes from all around the world (1,134 global populations).

national geographic has the genographic project where they collect dna information from around the world, but only ydna and mtdna. dnatribes collects dna information from around the world also, but only str (not ydna or mtdna).

[Brunetmj]

I might pass you on the border, the Americans are more interested in finding me.

Don't take that personally we are now arresting everyone who crosses the border.

accuracy between DNA Tribes' results and people's known ancestry suggests that if police relied literally on autosomal markers to create a profile of a suspect, they would be looking for the wrong person much of the time.

Hmm not sure that dantribes should be singled out. Not sure any form of DNA testing would work within that context.

I just see this wanted poster in my minds eye

WANTED FOR ROBBERY
JESSE JAMES
HEIGHT 5'8 WEIGHT 155 LBS
MISSING PART OF MIDDLE FINGER ON LEFT HAND
KNOWN TO BE HAPLOTYPE T2 (mDNA)