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  • Mutation

    I am lucky enought to have about 25 dna matches to my surname that range from exact to 4 marker variations. We all communicate are working together to solve some mysteries. We all have had these same two questions that we wonder about.

    I there a program out there that will predict an tree based on mutation rates from a group of DNA results?

    Our group has a mutation at DYS458. About half of us are 17 and half 18. I was wondering if a mutation has a natural progression to go one higher. Like going from 17 to 18. Or do the mutations equally go lower or higher without a trend. I know that each DYS has a particular mutation rate, but do they have a predictor of going higher or lower?

    Thanks in advance

  • #2
    How many markers have been reported for these people?

    Mutation rates are averages and most of us aren't average. If you drop ten coins, on average you'll have five heads and five tails. Try this 10 times and see how many times you get 5 of each. If you tried this with a program you could get a very misleading tree. I don't know of a program that even attempts to do this.

    I believe mutations can go either way. Some times you lose a repeat and other times you gain one.


    • #3

      Thanks for your reply,

      20 of the participants are 37 markers and 5 at 67 markers.
      Some of them are never left Scotland or Ireland and most were in the US in the colonial timeframes.
      Some of these candidates never left Scotland and Ireland. The rest were in the US since colonial times with no real correlation to the difference in mutation. So its maddening.