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  • Tip Reports

    I note that when I go to my FTDNA page, select Matches and generate a Tip Report with my cousin, it shows a 47% probability of a common ancestor at 8 generations and 76% at 12 generations. However, when I generate a Quick Tip Report from the Dashboard page for my cousin and me, it shows 70% at 8 gens and 90% at 12 gens. Why the big difference?

    Thanks, Skilly

  • #2
    Originally posted by Skilly View Post
    I note that when I go to my FTDNA page, select Matches and generate a Tip Report with my cousin, it shows a 47% probability of a common ancestor at 8 generations and 76% at 12 generations. However, when I generate a Quick Tip Report from the Dashboard page for my cousin and me, it shows 70% at 8 gens and 90% at 12 gens. Why the big difference?

    Thanks, Skilly
    Skilly-

    The Tip report is an unrefined science. This is clear. My brother and I are a GD of 1 at 25 markers, giving us a 27% chance of having a shared ancestor in the last 4 generations. But of course it states that you can refine those percentages with your paperwork. So now instead of us having a 27% chance, we now have a 100% chance of being related.

    This is why I am skeptical of the science as a whole, but am very interested in the process and the data farming aspect.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Zaru View Post
      But of course it states that you can refine those percentages with your paperwork. So now instead of us having a 27% chance, we now have a 100% chance of being related.

      This is why I am skeptical of the science as a whole, but am very interested in the process and the data farming aspect.
      I am also a skeptic of those statistical distance tools, but then I have no close matches at all.

      Regardless, like yourself, I am keenly interested in where this science may lead. It's very early days and like I said elsewhere I liken this period to the discovery of magnetism ... the harnessing and application of electricity is some ways off yet.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by gtc View Post
        I am also a skeptic of those statistical distance tools, but then I have no close matches at all.

        Regardless, like yourself, I am keenly interested in where this science may lead. It's very early days and like I said elsewhere I liken this period to the discovery of magnetism ... the harnessing and application of electricity is some ways off yet.
        that's the case with me even i don't have any close match..

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