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10/12 match

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  • #16
    Originally posted by vinnie View Post
    Given the relatively large databases in existance today,
    I dont think that the databases in existance today can be named "large".

    FTDNA has the suposedly largest database in the world and its 300.000 people in size from wich are like 40.000 - 50.000 from the British Isles (or related from there)

    And how many father-son relationships are in it?
    Something like that is needed to estaminate the mutation rate. At least I cannot imagine how else they tell what chance 1 Marker has to mutate from 1 generation to the next than to compare father-son data and say: Ah this marker is in 0.002% of the cases different from father to son... blabla


    • #17
      Originally posted by Jim Honeychuck View Post
      According to , the probability that he is a first cousin is 0.002 (two-tenths of one percent), and the probability that he is a sibling is 0.000 (not impossible, just too small to display).

      Like when Captain Barbossa was shocked to see Jack Sparrow alive and said "it is impossible", after Barbossa had left Sparrow to die on a marooned island! Sparrow retorted, "Improbable, it was improbable not impossible"

      This is why I think it makes sense to talk about "reasonable" probabilities. I am going to try to find out who this person is and get back to you guys. It might take a few weeks.
      Last edited by bob_chasm; 30 May 2009, 01:11 PM.


      • #18
        pics of 800 year old ancestral graves

        I stumbled upon this website hosted by a distant relative from my ancestral village

        You can also find pics of masjids (Muslim churches) that, even today, are run by my family members. I thought I would share them here. Should I provide a link to this website on my ysearch page?


        • #19

          Originally posted by Jim Barrett View Post
          Jim H,

          I believe you are reading the results incorrectly. "Note that the number of transmission events is essentially twice the number of generations back to the MRCA (Most Recent Common Ancestor). " Father to son would be one transmission event, brother to brother would be two transmission events and first cousins would be four transmission events.

          I have a fourth cousin twice removed which I calculate as twelve transmission events. We match 10/12. Your link gives a Cumulative Probability of 0.003 or 0.3%. We match 23/25 for 4.70% and 34/37 for 1.6%.

          I'll try to make my point one more time. Averages (average mutation rates) work great when you look a millions of events but have very little value when you look at only a few events.

          Flip a coin three times. One of four things will happen. You'll get 3 heads, 3 tails, 2 heads and 1 tail or 1 head and 2 tails. I'll ignore the case where the coin stands on edge or where you can't find it after it rolls away. From these results we could state that (1) the coin will always be heads, (2) the coin will always be tails, (3) you'll get heads 66.66% of the time or you'll get tails 66.66% of the time. If you flip the coin millions of time, I do have time to test this, I'll bet your results will be close to 50.0% heads and 50.0% tails.


          Just because the PROBABILITY is very small doesn't mean that it couldn't have happened.
          I have come to realize that my last name may not be as uncommon as I initially thought, among men from my father's village.