A question for all you DNAPrint gurus out there...

[burto]

When it says on the AncestrybyDNA 2.5 test bar chart that the range is "two time less likely" how do you work that out? For example if a range bar showed up as say 10% does that mean that group is between 0-10% probable but twice as unlikely as anything with an actual blue bar, and is it suggesting that only 2.5% of you is possibly made up of that group or that group is less likely to be part of your make up?! The triangle plot I haven't even begun to try and understand!
Thanks.

[tomcat]

The height of the blue bar gives DNAP's most likely estimate (MLE) of percentage of admixture for any of four ancestral components. The red bracket over the blue bar gives a range of confidence for those MLE's. (Note that the confidence range is different for each ancestral component - the EU has a bit more than a 20 point range whereas the NA and SSAF have a little tighter ranges).

So, lets say you had an EU blue bar that topped-out at 50 (percent), then the red bracket would span 60 to 40, approximately - that means that it is twice as unlikely that your EU percentage would be as high as 60 and twice as unlikely that your EU percentage would be less than 40.

Sometimes the MLE falls within the confidence range, e.g. an MLE of EU 10 against a confidence range of 20 for the EU measure. Although DNAP asserts that such minor admixtures have proved-out in paper genealogies, they also allow that such minor measures can be statistical "noise."

Hope this helps.

Tom

Why not give DNATribes a try.