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About the rarity of matches. Of course it is always so that some lineages are rare. Some of them are newcomers, and some are of an old branch, but still rare, even near extinction. Both reasons for rarity are somewhat random, but the latter case is maybe more interesting, because matches may have a very large geographical spread despite their rarity.
Just a thought... Given the spesifics of Lithuanian history, is it possible that at some point the paternal ancestor had assumed Jewish belief? Then his Jewish descendants would have been singled out to be killed by nazis. The survival rate of Lithuanian Jews was very low.
Finally, even when FTDNA reports no STR matches, the closest one(s) in every testing level must exist, of course. Y-Search may help in finding them. Give it a try.
And similarly if his ancestor was Polish, that was not the area from which Polish people were going to America most often. And if they still live there or in Poland, the likelihood that they tested is really small.
My uncle (mother's brother) volunteered his DNA for me. We tested 37 markers.
His results:
0 matches at 12, 25, 37
"Predicted" Haplogroup of R-M512
Needless to say, I am disappointed with the results.
He is the son of 1st generation Lithuanian-Americans. In other words, all four of his grandparents were immigrants.
Now what?
About the rarity of matches. Of course it is always so that some lineages are rare. Some of them are newcomers, and some are of an old branch, but still rare, even near extinction. Both reasons for rarity are somewhat random, but the latter case is maybe more interesting, because matches may have a very large geographical spread despite their rarity.
Just a thought... Given the spesifics of Lithuanian history, is it possible that at some point the paternal ancestor had assumed Jewish belief? Then his Jewish descendants would have been singled out to be killed by nazis. The survival rate of Lithuanian Jews was very low.
Finally, even when FTDNA reports no STR matches, the closest one(s) in every testing level must exist, of course. Y-Search may help in finding them. Give it a try.
"From what I understand the 12 marker level contains STR's that have the lowest mutation rates".
Close, but not quite. Each panel contains a mix of markers of different mutation rates. The first 12 markers simply happen to be those that were discovered and implemented first in genetic genealogy.
Within those first 12, DYS426 is extremely slow - almost so slow as to be useless, as nearly everyone has 426=12. From slowest to fastest - fast in a genealogical sense, which is still quite slow in the grand scheme of things - the next ones are 388, 392, and 393 (very slow), 19 and 389i (slow), 385a, 385b, 389b, and 391 (intermediate), and 390 and 439 (fast).
These are what the pastel reddish and bluish colors indicate at the top of the STR results page or in project pages. (For example, 426 is usually shown dark blue, indicating its ice cold slowness, whereas CDYa and CDYb are usually shown bright red, indicating that they mutate much faster than the other markers.) You can also look into Y-DNA mutation rate spreadsheets from various sources to confirm.
Maybe this analogy. Predicting a haplogroup from STRs is like doing exit polls. It is not the same, and it is not ever guaranteed to give the same results as the actual vote. However, most of the time you can predict the winner.
Yes, I'm finding that out. I was predicted to be 512 at 25 markers, so I got the 67 pos. test, and the prediction did not change. I am now waiting for an snp test to come back.
OK, I thought that by "predicted" they meant predicted by STR results, but not accurate until proven by snp's?
Maybe this analogy. Predicting a haplogroup from STRs is like doing exit polls. It is not the same, and it is not ever guaranteed to give the same results as the actual vote. However, most of the time you can predict the winner.
Hi. I am "Predicted" Haplogroup of R-M512 also. I have about 800 matches at the 12 marker level at distance 0. Many many more at distance 1. Most of them are other 512 matches. If I search at higher and higher levels of testing, like 67 markers, I end up with just 4 matches. This is good, this is what I want. They are all L448 matches by the way. I am new to this, but I think R-M512 should be returning many matches at 12 markers and something must be wrong.
This also may depend on if you have a off model marker value (STR value difference), as only exact matches are shown at 12 marker level, unless you are members of same project then you will see those with a 1GD.
From what I understand the 12 marker level contains STR's that have the lowest mutation rates, but any STR can mutate at any time which can throw ones results for a loop, specifically if you have 1 or more on these lower levels which have happened in the last generation or two.
For example my Father (R-M269 branch) has a recent STR mutation(happened in his father) on a 12 marker STR, plus two more STRs at the 37 marker level, one being a 2 Step.
In respect to the 12 marker level, the only exact match he has is his brother, and at 1GD he has 19.
His paternal 1st cousin on the other hand, who's line did not receive these STR mutations, has 19 exact matches and 39 matches with 1GD @ 12 markers.
Hi. I am "Predicted" Haplogroup of R-M512 also. I have about 800 matches at the 12 marker level at distance 0. Many many more at distance 1. Most of them are other 512 matches. If I search at higher and higher levels of testing, like 67 markers, I end up with just 4 matches. This is good, this is what I want. They are all L448 matches by the way. I am new to this, but I think R-M512 should be returning many matches at 12 markers and something must be wrong.
Haplogroups are not determined by STR results. There is only a correlation of STR patterns with haplogroups.
Hi. I am "Predicted" Haplogroup of R-M512 also. I have about 800 matches at the 12 marker level at distance 0. Many many more at distance 1. Most of them are other 512 matches. If I search at higher and higher levels of testing, like 67 markers, I end up with just 4 matches. This is good, this is what I want. They are all L448 matches by the way. I am new to this, but I think R-M512 should be returning many matches at 12 markers and something must be wrong.
njbecky126 - I am sorry your uncle has no matches. If it is any consolation, my Y-DNA line is from Ireland (and possibly Scotland or England before that, given the history), and I have no exact matches. I have one, anonymous, near match at 12 markers, but that is all. Hopefully as more and more people test, your uncle might get some matches.
Please join the R1a Project and/or the Polish-Lithuanian Project. We can then:
- Give you a list of near-matches (farther out than FTDNA's Y-DNA Matches page)
- Suggest further steps.
Look on the bright side: Zero matches at 12 markers suggests a very rare and intriguing patrilineal history!
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