How close do the results need to be???

[jmm45]

A few years ago we found a genealogy query on an electronic bulletin board by a young man in California looking for his ancestors in colonial NY during the pre-Revolutionary war era. As our family was of this same surname and lived in the same immediate area we felt there was probably a connection. Further research has led us both to the conclusion that this is quite likely.
We have located two appropriate male line descendants and have our tests in progess (we chose 25 marker tests thinking this should do the job).

Obviously an exact 25 for 25 match would just about make the case for the connection. How close could a "near miss" be and still be a high probability of a recent common ancestor? There are 5 generations back to the suspected MRCA on one line and 6 back on the other.

Thanks

[Victor]

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Obviously an exact 25 for 25 match would just about make the case for the connection. How close could a "near miss" be and still be a high probability of a recent common ancestor? There are 5 generations back to the suspected MRCA on one line and 6 back on the other.
Thanks

Just as a reference. In our project we share a MRCA eleven generations ago, that is, in the early 1600's. I have matches at 0, at -1 and at -2 steps in the same time frame.

For 5 generations I would expect and exact match or a -1 genetic distance at the most. Of course there must also be some exceptions .... This is just my opinion.

[Jim Barrett]

jmm45,

A lot depends on how common your haplotype is. With a very common haplotype a 25/25 match doesn't mean a lot. I have people in one of my projects who have over 50 25/25 matches, most with other surnames. There is not much chance they are related.

I have a very rare haplotype. I know I'm related to most of my 12/12 matches.

When you get your results back, see how many matches you have. You may want to ask your question again at that time.

Good luck.