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The Lost Tribe, M269

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  • #61
    Originally posted by T E Peterman View Post
    A few things to consider when looking at the yfull tree:

    1. The upstream clade from M269 is shown to be P297.

    2. There is a list of 38 SNPs, which includes novel variants, that define M269. M269 is shown as a branch, which originated 13,200 years ago. It's subclades (L23 & PF7558) are shown as originating 6,400 years ago. The MRCA of all who are M269+ is thus 6,400 years ago.

    3. This means that anyone with data uploaded to ytree, who is M269+ shares those 38 SNPs.

    4. If someone were to upload data who was M269+, but who didn't share all 38 SNPs, it would mean that M269 was higher in the list & that some of the 38 SNPs were downstream of M269, but still upstream of all L23+ & PF7558+ participants.

    5. If someone were to upload data who was M269-, but was P297+ and shared some of the SNPs on the M269 branch, we would know that some of the 38 SNPs originated before M269, and thus define a separate branch, with which M269 would have a new MRCA.

    6. Only about 3,000 or so men have uploaded data to yfull.

    7. Of these, only 2 (TWO) are M269+ & L23- and PF7558-. Thus, we haven't had many opportunities to ascertain whether additional branches may have developed between the origin of the M269 branch & the advent of L23 & PF7558.

    8. Of the 3,000 or so men, only 0 (ZERO) are P297+ & M269- and M478- (M478 is a sibling clade to M269 and I think equivalent to M73).

    Therefore, we have an extremely small pool of results with which to ascertain whether the MRCA of all M269+ is actually older than 6,400 years ago, or whether the origin of the M269 branch is actually a lot more recent.

    The suggestion that M269 existed in splendid isolation for 8,000 years or so is based more on a lack of data than anything else.

    To repeat what I have said before: We need to encourage anyone who is M269* (ie, M269+ & L23- & PF7558-) to do the Big Y test. We need to encourage anyone who if P297* (ie, P297+ & M269- & M478-) to do the Big Y test.

    Since most of the people who fit in either group probably lived in Central Asia, some of the most needed participants probably haven't even heard of the Big Y test. Would be nice if a well funded organization like National Geographic could take all of the indigenous samples that Spencer Wells & company collected from all over the world & get them Big Y tested -that might not be possible.

    Timothy Peterman
    Regardless of who tests in the future we know for certain that everyone who is L11 has these 43 SNPs and belong to a single Y line. All those who are L23 have these same SNPs. In the past our R1b was not a very successful Y group. A lot of lines must have died out. There is no way of knowing whether or not the two Samara L23 ancient remains are the ancestors of anyone alive today either. The four old Mal'ta boy had no descendants and the remains of the parents were not found in the vicinity. We need someone to put the 43 (FTDNA)SNPs in the correct order to determine where exactly M269 was in the this group. I looked at the tree today and L23 has a lot of brother subgroups now too.

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    • #62
      Originally posted by 1798 View Post
      Regardless of who tests in the future we know for certain that everyone who is L11 has these 43 SNPs and belong to a single Y line. All those who are L23 have these same SNPs. In the past our R1b was not a very successful Y group. A lot of lines must have died out. There is no way of knowing whether or not the two Samara L23 ancient remains are the ancestors of anyone alive today either. The four old Mal'ta boy had no descendants and the remains of the parents were not found in the vicinity. We need someone to put the 43 (FTDNA)SNPs in the correct order to determine where exactly M269 was in the this group. I looked at the tree today and L23 has a lot of brother subgroups now too.
      Why do you think M269 is any more important than the others.

      If you so desperately need them placed in chronological order you could ask your psychic friend : )

      Comment


      • #63
        Originally posted by Subwoofer View Post
        Why do you think M269 is any more important than the others.

        If you so desperately need them placed in chronological order you could ask your psychic friend : )
        I don't think M269 is more important than the others but It is the name that we are stuck with at present. I think that the scientists at FTDNA are capable of putting them in chronological order and I don't understand why they don't.

        I could ask my friend about you and the never ending gripe that you have with me.

        Comment


        • #64
          The only way that they can be put in any kind of order is to find men who are positive for some & negative for others. This will cut the stack of 43 (your count) or 38 (my count) into smaller pieces & we will see which came first.

          You are always cautioning the rest of us to wait before ascribing anything to the history of M269, until more ancient DNA is tested.

          The real point of my earlier post is that we also need to employ the same cautious logic to the history of M269, until more modern DNA is Big Y tested. If enough moderns test, the history of this clade will no doubt become apparent, even if we don't get more ancient samples.

          Timothy Peterman

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          • #65
            Originally posted by T E Peterman View Post
            The only way that they can be put in any kind of order is to find men who are positive for some & negative for others. This will cut the stack of 43 (your count) or 38 (my count) into smaller pieces & we will see which came first.

            You are always cautioning the rest of us to wait before ascribing anything to the history of M269, until more ancient DNA is tested.

            The real point of my earlier post is that we also need to employ the same cautious logic to the history of M269, until more modern DNA is Big Y tested. If enough moderns test, the history of this clade will no doubt become apparent, even if we don't get more ancient samples.

            Timothy Peterman

            With the thousands of R1b men tested so far you would think that they were able to do this already.

            How were they able to put the BigY novel variants in the correct order?

            It would be hard to find an ancient grave site in the Ardennes.

            Comment


            • #66
              Originally posted by 1798 View Post
              With the thousands of R1b men tested so far you would think that they were able to do this already.
              Do you really not understand that when 43 or 38 SNPs are listed as equivalent, even after extensive testing of tens of thousands of men, that it means that there are probably no surviving paternal lines that are negative for one or two or three of the equivalent SNPs? In other words, most of the lines which lack all the equivalent SNPs (i.e., are ancestral to those with the missing SNPs) have daughtered out and don't exist among men living today.

              I'm not suggesting that we shouldn't continue to look for men who'll be negative for one or more of the SNPs equivalent to M269. Maybe some day we'll see one or two or a few. If ever found, they'll probably be found among men with a paternal line from some small rural area not in northern or western Europe, perhaps not even in Europe - areas that are not currently well tested or tested at all.

              Comment


              • #67
                None of the novel variants were even known until the Big Y test revealed their existence.

                So tens of thousands of R1b men were tested & each test was blind to the fact that these novel variants are there. Only about 3,000 plus results have been uploaded to yfull across all haplogroups. I'm basing this on the assigned number for yfull participants.

                The key to placing novel variants (& any SNP for that matter) in order is to determine which are shared & not shared with various participants.

                Timothy Peterman

                Comment


                • #68
                  Originally posted by 1798 View Post
                  I could ask my friend about you and the never ending gripe that you have with me.
                  You misunderstand, I find our chats rather fun but I am a little perturbed that you perceive my comments as gripes : )
                  Last edited by Subwoofer; 16 May 2015, 07:02 PM.

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                  • #69
                    Originally posted by MMaddi View Post
                    Do you really not understand that when 43 or 38 SNPs are listed as equivalent, even after extensive testing of tens of thousands of men, that it means that there are probably no surviving paternal lines that are negative for one or two or three of the equivalent SNPs? In other words, most of the lines which lack all the equivalent SNPs (i.e., are ancestral to those with the missing SNPs) have daughtered out and don't exist among men living today.

                    I'm not suggesting that we shouldn't continue to look for men who'll be negative for one or more of the SNPs equivalent to M269. Maybe some day we'll see one or two or a few. If ever found, they'll probably be found among men with a paternal line from some small rural area not in northern or western Europe, perhaps not even in Europe - areas that are not currently well tested or tested at all.
                    I understand that we who are M269 are descended from one single line which existed for 6000 years perhaps in isolation. That was the reason that I posted this thread.

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Originally posted by Subwoofer View Post
                      You misunderstand, I find our chats rather fun but I am a little perturbed that you perceive my comments as gripes : )
                      I took you up wrong then. A bit of fun is okay with me. There are too many people walking about every day with big sour heads on them.

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        If you study the yfull tree, you will discover similar bottlenecks in the history of almost every haplogroup.

                        Within any stable population of any species, there is a tendency over time for some genes to be more successful at being passed to the next generation than others. It could be a selective advantage. Or it could just be genetic drift.

                        When it comes to y-DNA, over the long term, haplogroups (ie, surnames) are always in the process of being eliminated. Sometimes a calamity accounts for the untimely death of a large number of men. Sometimes, haplogroups are cuckolded out of existence; ie, some men are simply more successful at seducing women. Sometimes, lineages simply daughter out. I understand that in England, for example, there are a lot fewer surnames today than in the Late Middle Ages.

                        Over the long term, the only guarantee of survival of two or more haplogroups is population isolation.

                        I suspect that if the long term population history of humanity was known going back tens of millenia, we would discover that whenever a multitude of derived haplogroups appear (eg, P312 producing DF27, U152, L21, DF99, L238, & DF19) within a short amount of time, we are in fact seeing evidence of a diaspora. If the derived haplogroups had all remained in the same locale as the parent, after 5,000 years, several of these would have been vastly reduced or eliminated entirely.

                        But... P312 underwent an expansion. One population moved to Iberia. Another population moved to the British Isles. Another population moved to the Alpine region. Etc. Within each population, over time, one of these haplogroups came to be the largest in number for all of the reasons described above.

                        I surmise that beginning not too long after 13,200 years ago (origin time for M269), there were probably a number of derived haplogroups. Not too long after that, another cluster of derived haplogroups appear. Matter of fact, by your counting, there may have been 43 such phenomema until 6,400 years ago. But during this whole time, M269 remained in one place & comprised one gene pool. Within a few centuries after the appearance of each new set of SNPs, all but one would be eliminated.

                        Then, suddenly, beginning with L23, two or more lines of descent survived. L23, for example, produced L51 & Z2103. The survival of these indicates that the progeny of M269 were suddenly on the move; expanding from their native range. The fact that this coincides quite well with the domestication of horses on the steppe comes as no great surprise to me.

                        L11's derived clades have been so good at surviving because they were on the move, expanding into new territory, armed with new tools that vastly enhanced their likelihood of reproductive success.

                        Poor Il of western Europe. This clade had spread across all of western Europe from the time of it's origin over 25,000 years ago. After the LGM, it was no doubt huge. Then, about 4,500 years ago, a new reproductive competitor arrived on the scene. I1 was almost driven to extinction. Matter of fact, the ONLY I1 line that survived this onslaught was in Scandinavia, isolated from the men who were wiping out their kindred clades elsewhere in Europe.

                        Go to yfull & look at the MRCA for I1 & you will see what I'm talking about.

                        Timothy Peterman

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          I think that the expansion coincides with the Neolithic and not the Bronze-Age. Do you think that if one of the lost tribes in the Amazon were expand that their descendants would be more successful thousands of miles from their ancestral home? I don't buy into the Indo-European stuff because that is to do with languages and not dna.

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                          • #73
                            The Neolithic expansion likely involved haplogroups G2a, E1b1b, & J2. This probably lasted from say 6500 BC to 4000 BC.

                            The bronze age expansion likely involved M269.

                            Connecting the dots isn't that hard to do. In the 3rd millenium BC, we find:

                            1. bronze implements adopted in Europe.

                            2. the spread of horseback riding from the steppe.

                            3. the spread of Indo-European languages

                            3. the rapid expansion of R1b L11+ clades, making their first verifiable debut into central & western Europe

                            4. the collapse of I1 diversity

                            5. the spread of Ancient North Eurasian autosomal DNA into central & western Europe.

                            Each of these is points is a dot. Each could be an isolated event that didn't involve the other. But the principle of parsimony compels us to consider the possibility that they are all elements of the same phenomenon.

                            Timothy Peterman

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Originally posted by T E Peterman View Post
                              The Neolithic expansion likely involved haplogroups G2a, E1b1b, & J2. This probably lasted from say 6500 BC to 4000 BC.

                              The bronze age expansion likely involved M269.

                              Connecting the dots isn't that hard to do. In the 3rd millenium BC, we find:

                              1. bronze implements adopted in Europe.

                              2. the spread of horseback riding from the steppe.

                              3. the spread of Indo-European languages

                              3. the rapid expansion of R1b L11+ clades, making their first verifiable debut into central & western Europe

                              4. the collapse of I1 diversity

                              5. the spread of Ancient North Eurasian autosomal DNA into central & western Europe.

                              Each of these is points is a dot. Each could be an isolated event that didn't involve the other. But the principle of parsimony compels us to consider the possibility that they are all elements of the same phenomenon.

                              Timothy Peterman
                              I believe the Neolithic expansion involved all of the haplogroups living in Europe at that time.

                              The origin place of M269 has yet to be found. When it does we can get the first dot in the correct place. Then we can work on the downstream branches.

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                              • #75
                                http://www.kumbarov.com./ht35/R1b1a2...05_17_2015.pdf

                                The story of M269 and subclades is a complicated one. Most of the people in this link are from western Europe.

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