Doggerland

[N21163]

Dr. Hammer used a couple of maps from Eupedia, but they were not essential to his presentation, which was his work.

Now that we have what you "believe", let's have a little evidence to support it.



You know, I hear people repeat that aphorism again and again, but does it make sense, really?

Absence of evidence, or just plain absence, is a form of circumstantial evidence. The more one looks and does not find, the more he becomes convinced that the thing he sought just is not present where he was looking.

If I misplace my car keys, have looked under the bed, but failed to find them there, a few more tries might be worthwhile, because I might have missed something. But looking 100 or 200 times because, well, "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence", would just be a waste of time. It's not likely my keys are under the bed.

Well said

[1798]

Dr. Hammer used a couple of maps from Eupedia, but they were not essential to his presentation, which was his work.

Now that we have what you "believe", let's have a little evidence to support it.



You know, I hear people repeat that aphorism again and again, but does it make sense, really?

Absence of evidence, or just plain absence, is a form of circumstantial evidence. The more one looks and does not find, the more he becomes convinced that the thing he sought just is not present where he was looking.

If I misplace my car keys, have looked under the bed, but failed to find them there, a few more tries might be worthwhile, because I might have missed something. But looking 100 or 200 times because, well, "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence", would just be a waste of time. It's not likely my keys are under the bed.

How many ancient sites in western Europe have they found,10,000? I would like you to produce some evidence to show where R11 was born and the age.
U106 being 6000 years old in Europe and L11 being the ancestor before that would put L11 in the Mesolithic era.

[ironroad41]

doggerland

You have some "circumstantial" evidence. The heaviest concentration of R1b seems to be in the Isles. For most other Hgs, that would be enough.

But then the oldest Haplotypes of R1b aren't found there is the answer. But, talk to "Rathna", he will argue that some of the oldest R1b is found in northern Italy, but again, he doesn't fit the mold and is considered a "kook" of some sort.

What gets to me is why we have to make and "carve in stone" these preliminary conclusions, based on limited data? I can remember Alan, the resident historian, and many of his posts on rootsweb, accepting the "new DNA data" and rewriting the new truths of history. Many, such as Jim Heald, argued nay, but were shot down by the then current experts such as VV and Nordtvedt.

The fact that "current" DNA data doesn't seem to support an assumption, doesn't make it wrong! We've only had data to work with for less than 30 years. Zhivotovskys evolutionary mutation rate is once again emerging as useful when trying to estimate very old TMRCA's.

There are a small cadre of people who are the Intelligentsia of DNA analysis and who insist that their conclusions are right. In my opinion, we still don't fully understand the impact of "disasters" and "bottlenecks" on human history. To assert we do, or ignore them, is poor academics in my opinion.

[1798]

You have some "circumstantial" evidence. The heaviest concentration of R1b seems to be in the Isles. For most other Hgs, that would be enough.

But then the oldest Haplotypes of R1b aren't found there is the answer. But, talk to "Rathna", he will argue that some of the oldest R1b is found in northern Italy, but again, he doesn't fit the mold and is considered a "kook" of some sort.

What gets to me is why we have to make and "carve in stone" these preliminary conclusions, based on limited data? I can remember Alan, the resident historian, and many of his posts on rootsweb, accepting the "new DNA data" and rewriting the new truths of history. Many, such as Jim Heald, argued nay, but were shot down by the then current experts such as VV and Nordtvedt.

The fact that "current" DNA data doesn't seem to support an assumption, doesn't make it wrong! We've only had data to work with for less than 30 years. Zhivotovskys evolutionary mutation rate is once again emerging as useful when trying to estimate very old TMRCA's.

There are a small cadre of people who are the Intelligentsia of DNA analysis and who insist that their conclusions are right. In my opinion, we still don't fully understand the impact of "disasters" and "bottlenecks" on human history. To assert we do, or ignore them, is poor academics in my opinion.

The oldest haplotypes. How do you determine which R1b haplotypes are the oldest? Those with the most mutations from the modal? There are a couple of R1b men from the Isles with GDs of 6 at 67 markers from the R1b modal. Does that mean that they belong to the youngest or the oldest groups?
Isn't it possible that they have a stronger type of dna that don't just have lots of mutations or are better healers than the rest of us.

[ironroad41]

doggerland

You raise some interesting questions. Usually, you can't infer a lot from simply an STR set of values without some SNP data. When I was analyzed early on, I was told that my haplotype resembled an Eastern Europe haplotype - very early like Ht-35. I have now been measured as L 1066+ under Z253, but I have many mutations from the Z 253 modal.

Note: A modal just represents the most frequently found values, it doesn't necessarily represent the founders haplotype, especially if there was a bottleneck in the line. This may mean that all P312 and some subsequent modals may not represent the original modal, but reflect high growth since the bottleneck occurred and reflect the subsequent lines from the bottleneck.

I don't trust GD as a good measure of age because many faster STR mutators can have many mutations over longer periods of time. For longer periods of time you can only use the slower mutators that aren't palindromic.

I don't understand your last comment re: healing. Autosomal Mutations can affect health, positively and negatively. Usually, I don't associate STR mutations with health, but I may be wrong there since recent data indicate gene conversion can affect STR values (Palindromes).

[1798]

You raise some interesting questions. Usually, you can't infer a lot from simply an STR set of values without some SNP data. When I was analyzed early on, I was told that my haplotype resembled an Eastern Europe haplotype - very early like Ht-35. I have now been measured as L 1066+ under Z253, but I have many mutations from the Z 253 modal.

Note: A modal just represents the most frequently found values, it doesn't necessarily represent the founders haplotype, especially if there was a bottleneck in the line. This may mean that all P312 and some subsequent modals may not represent the original modal, but reflect high growth since the bottleneck occurred and reflect the subsequent lines from the bottleneck.

I don't trust GD as a good measure of age because many faster STR mutators can have many mutations over longer periods of time. For longer periods of time you can only use the slower mutators that aren't palindromic.

I don't understand your last comment re: healing. Autosomal Mutations can affect health, positively and negatively. Usually, I don't associate STR mutations with health, but I may be wrong there since recent data indicate gene conversion can affect STR values (Palindromes).

How many mutations have you from the WAMH? The modal is the most common set of values but it must be close to the ancestor haplotype. It is hard to ignore the frequency of the WAMH in the Isles. There are some people who think that the WAMH is the haplotype of the L11 ancestor.
If I tested a lot of my cousins and created a modal haplotype from the results I think that I would have the set of values for the haplotype of my ancestor.
I cant make sense of the group I belong in as a lot of subgroups match at 57/67 markers.I have a GD of 30 from a couple of the men and yet we belong in the same subgroup.There are 28 SNPs that those in my group who tested Big-Y have in common and if I want to find out how many I match them it will cost me 39 dollars per SNP. Some of them have a lot of singletons which are family or private SNPs but they will only learn with more testers.

[Stevo]

How many ancient sites in western Europe have they found,10,000? I would like you to produce some evidence to show where R11 was born and the age.
U106 being 6000 years old in Europe and L11 being the ancestor before that would put L11 in the Mesolithic era.

You've been given the evidence over and over, but you have an agenda that won't let the facts get in the way.

There is no evidence that R1b was anywhere near Doggerland when Doggerland was high and dry, over 8,000 years ago.

U106 is not 6,000 years old in Europe if by "Europe" you mean western Europe. It may have existed somewhere in eastern or southeastern Europe that long ago, but I doubt it.

[ironroad41]

I am a GD of 21 from xqj7h (P312). This is over 95 STR's. I don't think this means much.

I don't think you understand the concept of a "bottleneck"? The Modal after the disaster may be quite different than before, simply because it may have been an outlier who was very successful after the event occurrence. I think the P312 represents maybe a poorer example than the WAMH, but I don't have the current Y search code for the WAMH, on the other hand, I surmise that the current WAMH is very similar to P312, which is similar to R L21. (This fact, if it is true, somewhat substantiates my point above).

[Stevo]

You have some "circumstantial" evidence. The heaviest concentration of R1b seems to be in the Isles. For most other Hgs, that would be enough.

But then the oldest Haplotypes of R1b aren't found there is the answer. But, talk to "Rathna", he will argue that some of the oldest R1b is found in northern Italy, but again, he doesn't fit the mold and is considered a "kook" of some sort.

What gets to me is why we have to make and "carve in stone" these preliminary conclusions, based on limited data? I can remember Alan, the resident historian, and many of his posts on rootsweb, accepting the "new DNA data" and rewriting the new truths of history. Many, such as Jim Heald, argued nay, but were shot down by the then current experts such as VV and Nordtvedt.

The fact that "current" DNA data doesn't seem to support an assumption, doesn't make it wrong! We've only had data to work with for less than 30 years. Zhivotovskys evolutionary mutation rate is once again emerging as useful when trying to estimate very old TMRCA's.

There are a small cadre of people who are the Intelligentsia of DNA analysis and who insist that their conclusions are right. In my opinion, we still don't fully understand the impact of "disasters" and "bottlenecks" on human history. To assert we do, or ignore them, is poor academics in my opinion.

What was preliminary, and based on far too little data, was the old idea that R1b spent the LGM in the Franco-Cantabrian Ice Age Refuge and repopulated Western Europe from there. It is the accumulation of more data that has rendered that notion obsolete.

There is just no good evidence to indicate that R1b expanded from the FC Ice Age Refuge after the LGM and lots of evidence that it expanded rapidly from SE to NW across Europe beginning in the late Neolithic or perhaps the Copper or Bronze Ages.

[1798]

I am a GD of 21 from xqj7h (P312). This is over 95 STR's. I don't think this means much.

I don't think you understand the concept of a "bottleneck"? The Modal after the disaster may be quite different than before, simply because it may have been an outlier who was very successful after the event occurrence. I think the P312 represents maybe a poorer example than the WAMH, but I don't have the current Y search code for the WAMH, on the other hand, I surmise that the current WAMH is very similar to P312, which is similar to R L21. (This fact, if it is true, somewhat substantiates my point above).

Of the two men who are close to the WAMH that I wrote about, one is U106 and the other is P312. That is not a coincidence.Both are descended from P310,L11,L52,L151,YSC0000082,YSC0000191 and P311 is downstream of these before U106 and P312 and 13 24 14 11 11 14 12 12 12 13 13 29 is ancestral to all western European R1b.

Bottleneck from wikipedia.
"A population bottleneck is a sharp reduction in the size of a population due to environmental events (such as earthquakes, floods, fires, or droughts) or human activities (such as Genocide). Such events can reduce the variation in the gene pool of a population. After an event, a smaller population (of animals/people), with a correspondingly smaller genetic diversity, remains to pass on genes to future generations of offspring. Genetic diversity remains lower, only slowly increasing with time as random mutations occur.[1] In consequence of such population size reductions and the loss of genetic variation, the robustness of the population is reduced; the ability of the population to survive selecting environmental changes like climatic change or a shift in available resources, is reduced.

On the contrary, depending upon the causes of the bottleneck, the survivors may have been the most fit individuals, hence improving the traits within the gene pool while shrinking it. This genetic drift can change the proportional distribution of an allele by chance and even lead to fixation or loss of alleles. Due to the smaller population size after a bottleneck event, the chance of inbreeding and genetic homogeneity increases and unfavoured alleles can accumulate.

A slightly different form of a bottleneck can occur, if a small group becomes reproductively (e.g. geographically) separated from the main population, such as through a founder event, where for example a few members of a species successfully colonize a new isolated island."

[ironroad41]

What was preliminary, and based on far too little data, was the old idea that R1b spent the LGM in the Franco-Cantabrian Ice Age Refuge and repopulated Western Europe from there. It is the accumulation of more data that has rendered that notion obsolete.

There is just no good evidence to indicate that R1b expanded from the FC Ice Age Refuge after the LGM and lots of evidence that it expanded rapidly from SE to NW across Europe beginning in the late Neolithic or perhaps the Copper or Bronze Ages.

There are some questions, as you know, raised by the Busby paper. He doesn't see clines in early R1b across Europe as you would expect to see if there was a SE to NW expansion across Europe. The expansion concept is one model of many one could assume for the high density of R1b, especially in WE.

The geographical/geological evidence is huge for the Storegga Tsunami, the EC of Scotland/England have thick deposits of sediment. So it was a real event and the question is how it impacted the people living in NE?

I think, personally, it is premature and unnecessary to opt for a single model, until we gather more data.

[ironroad41]

Of the two men who are close to the WAMH that I wrote about, one is U106 and the other is P312. That is not a coincidence.Both are descended from P310,L11,L52,L151,YSC0000082,YSC0000191 and P311 is downstream of these before U106 and P312 and 13 24 14 11 11 14 12 12 12 13 13 29 is ancestral to all western European R1b.

Bottleneck from wikipedia.
"A population bottleneck is a sharp reduction in the size of a population due to environmental events (such as earthquakes, floods, fires, or droughts) or human activities (such as Genocide). Such events can reduce the variation in the gene pool of a population. After an event, a smaller population (of animals/people), with a correspondingly smaller genetic diversity, remains to pass on genes to future generations of offspring. Genetic diversity remains lower, only slowly increasing with time as random mutations occur.[1] In consequence of such population size reductions and the loss of genetic variation, the robustness of the population is reduced; the ability of the population to survive selecting environmental changes like climatic change or a shift in available resources, is reduced.

On the contrary, depending upon the causes of the bottleneck, the survivors may have been the most fit individuals, hence improving the traits within the gene pool while shrinking it. This genetic drift can change the proportional distribution of an allele by chance and even lead to fixation or loss of alleles. Due to the smaller population size after a bottleneck event, the chance of inbreeding and genetic homogeneity increases and unfavoured alleles can accumulate.

A slightly different form of a bottleneck can occur, if a small group becomes reproductively (e.g. geographically) separated from the main population, such as through a founder event, where for example a few members of a species successfully colonize a new isolated island."

In a disaster, it not necessarily the "fittest" that survive.

We don't know for sure the modal of who survived or of WAMH in my opinion. We only have the Haplotypes of those who survived. There are very few L11, P312, U106 Star folks around since lines die out naturally as well as from disasters. The modals we infer are based mostly on large subclades of L21, which enjoyed large population growth. Look at the subclades of Ht 35 (an FtDNA project); there are several very different sets of haplotypes there.

I am not saying the WAMH is fully wrong, but I can think of several reasons why it may not be correct. Until we have a better understanding of the STR mutational process, and a larger database, we will be guesstimating TMRCA's and real modal values.

[1798]

In a disaster, it not necessarily the "fittest" that survive.

We don't know for sure the modal of who survived or of WAMH in my opinion. We only have the Haplotypes of those who survived. There are very few L11, P312, U106 Star folks around since lines die out naturally as well as from disasters. The modals we infer are based mostly on large subclades of L21, which enjoyed large population growth. Look at the subclades of Ht 35 (an FtDNA project); there are several very different sets of haplotypes there.

I am not saying the WAMH is fully wrong, but I can think of several reasons why it may not be correct. Until we have a better understanding of the STR mutational process, and a larger database, we will be guesstimating TMRCA's and real modal values.

We are the descendants of those survivors and its our common YSTR values that has produced the modal known as the WAMH. It has been written many times that there was a population explosion in the Neolithic. The Neolithic in western Europe took hold about 6000 years ago.The archaeological records show that and that's the reason that I have said several times that P312 and U106 must be around 6000 ybp. The SNP count is showing around the same time frame as well.

[ironroad41]

We are the descendants of those survivors and its our common YSTR values that has produced the modal known as the WAMH. It has been written many times that there was a population explosion in the Neolithic. The Neolithic in western Europe took hold about 6000 years ago.The archaeological records show that and that's the reason that I have said several times that P312 and U106 must be around 6000 ybp. The SNP count is showing around the same time frame as well.

I agree with your first statement. That said, I repeat, the survivors don't define the founder, nor his haplotype. There MAY have been a different set of haplotypes, pre disaster, that define the founder.

I also agree that P312 may be as old as 6K years; I am not as familiar with U106. I will mention that very few if any STR analyses to date estimate P312 or U106 at 6K BP. Use of STR's to estimate TMRCA's today is more of an Art than a Science.

[Armando]

I also agree that P312 may be as old as 6K years; I am not as familiar with U106. I will mention that very few if any STR analyses to date estimate P312 or U106 at 6K BP. Use of STR's to estimate TMRCA's today is more of an Art than a Science.

Since P312 and U06 are parallel branches that descend directly from P311 then there shouldn't be too many centuries between them. They should have found other SNP markers by now if there was a longer time period between the appearance of P312 and U106.

If we use the hypothesis that R1b comes from the east then U106 should be a couple of generations older that P312 since U106 is mainly found east of the Rhine and P312 is mainly found west of the Rhine.