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yDNA Based TMRCA Estimates

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  • yDNA Based TMRCA Estimates

    Dear Sir and Madame, I am writing to request that something be done to improve TiP reports and/or TMRCAs based on yDNA in general. The reports are misleading and appear to be drastically wrong in many cases. For example, I am comparing two members in a project and the TiP report tells me they have a TMRCA within the past 24 generations with 99.72% certainty. Meanwhile, my own separate algorithmic calculation suggests it is more likely to be within the past 1,600 ybp, and another experienced genetic genealogist believes the TMRCA is closer to 3,500 ybp (these are three very different results). This is only one example of a recurring situation. I appreciate your guidance and recommend an improvement of TMRCA calculations at FT which would take into account not only STR results but also any known haplogroup evidence (and the calculations that would follow from haplogroups). This is a major flaw in your platform's presentation for those of us who rely on your supportive interpretations. Ideally, a yDNA match list, just as the Family Finder list includes a closeness estimate, would included a TMRCA estimation, based on all available evidence, including haplogroup formation times. Anything you do to make data intepretation more accurate and reliable will greatly improve the public's perception of the validity and utility of yDNA testing. Yeah I know there is fine print on the TiP report saying use other evidence, but that is not a good enough use of all the data available to FT. I don't think I need to point out that YFULL provides formation estimates and TMRCAs for many Haplogroups (when they have enough data to do so). FTDNA has enough data to do this but does not, so we the public are out in the cold without a blanket.

  • #2
    Originally posted by Adam View Post
    Dear Sir and Madame, I am writing to request that something be done to improve TiP reports and/or TMRCAs based on yDNA in general. The reports are misleading and appear to be drastically wrong in many cases. For example, I am comparing two members in a project and the TiP report tells me they have a TMRCA within the past 24 generations with 99.72% certainty. Meanwhile, my own separate algorithmic calculation suggests it is more likely to be within the past 1,600 ybp, and another experienced genetic genealogist believes the TMRCA is closer to 3,500 ybp (these are three very different results). This is only one example of a recurring situation. I appreciate your guidance and recommend an improvement of TMRCA calculations at FT which would take into account not only STR results but also any known haplogroup evidence (and the calculations that would follow from haplogroups). This is a major flaw in your platform's presentation for those of us who rely on your supportive interpretations. Ideally, a yDNA match list, just as the Family Finder list includes a closeness estimate, would included a TMRCA estimation, based on all available evidence, including haplogroup formation times. Anything you do to make data intepretation more accurate and reliable will greatly improve the public's perception of the validity and utility of yDNA testing. Yeah I know there is fine print on the TiP report saying use other evidence, but that is not a good enough use of all the data available to FT. I don't think I need to point out that YFULL provides formation estimates and TMRCAs for many Haplogroups (when they have enough data to do so). FTDNA has enough data to do this but does not, so we the public are out in the cold without a blanket.
    The Tip reports are just statistical estimates back to the common paternal ancestor, sometimes accurate, sometimes not. I have been doing dna testing & genealogy to confirm my paternal & maternal lines since 2009, and realistically you have to use all the available tools in the box; and in my case that included non id info from my birth mother, because I am an adoptee, ydna testing, autosomal testing, testing at 23andMe, ancestry along with FTDNA. The end result for me has been much success; but I will be honest I felt lost like you, got aggravated at times, but you have to be patient while the puzzle pieces come together. Recently I connected with my niece, whose paternal grandfather was my birth father, also connected with my great nephew, whose paternal great-grandfather was my birth father. Use every available tool in the box, and be very careful to get your genealogy correct. Fortunately for me, I was the only NPE in my paternal line.

    Best regards, Doug
    Kit#122883

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    • #3
      This is a user forum and is not monitored on a regular basis by FTDNA employees. If you have a concern or recommendation you can open a request by using the Contact Us link on your FTDNA home page.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by jbarry6899 View Post
        This is a user forum and is not monitored on a regular basis by FTDNA employees. If you have a concern or recommendation you can open a request by using the Contact Us link on your FTDNA home page.
        Not sure if you have an issue with my reply to Adam or not, but I believe I gave him good advice, based on my success with dna testing.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by DWFlineage View Post

          Not sure if you have an issue with my reply to Adam or not, but I believe I gave him good advice, based on my success with dna testing.
          No, no issue at all. Your experience is similar to mine. Just wanted to let him know that if he has a recommendation he needs to send it directly to FTDNA, not just post here.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by jbarry6899 View Post

            No, no issue at all. Your experience is similar to mine. Just wanted to let him know that if he has a recommendation he needs to send it directly to FTDNA, not just post here.
            Yes, I agree.

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