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Y-DNA Haplogroup prediction changes March 2015

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  • Y-DNA Haplogroup prediction changes March 2015

    Hello all, wanted to pass along a message from management:

    When we released the new Y-DNA Haplotree last spring, we were hopeful that we would be able to improve our ability to predict deep haplogroup branches. As we have continued to update the tree, we have learned several valuable lessons. One of those has been the deeper level predictions do not carry the reliability we require and that testers deserve.

    In working with our customers to confirm the predictions, we have found that the small group tests we performed are not working universally on the large group level. The result of this lesson is that we are returning everyone’s predictions to the reliable SNP Assurance Program level to ensure everyone receives a prediction that is 100% accurate. For more information on the SNP Assurance Program, click here: https://www.familytreedna.com/learn/...nce-program-2/

    We had intended to prepare you and your group project administrators before we started re-running the predictions. Our team was excited by the new process and we unintentionally released the first of the re-predictions before making the announcement. Our R-haplogroup people may already see changes to their predictions. We apologize for the surprise, confusion and some frustration this may cause. We will be continue to re-run predictions in the next few weeks as we update other branches of the tree. In addition, over the next few weeks we will release several of our new Deep Clade tests that will in part begin to replace the need for single SNP testing as these panels are large, robust and very moderately priced.

    We encourage customers to work with their group project administrators, especially haplogroup administrators, to determine the best SNPs for them to order to confirm their branch, and our hope is that returning to our previous prediction standard will ease this process for everyone. We appreciate your patience and support as we continue to research and developed the new Y-tree.

  • #2
    New R haplogroup classification moots an SNP test?

    I was re-classified from R-173 to R-M269. I have a P-25 SNP result due in the next few weeks. This test now appears pointless. What options do I have in cancelling or requesting a refund for this test?

    Comment


    • #3
      I would say that a prediction is not the same as determination, and would not cancel the test.

      W. (Mr.)

      Comment


      • #4
        I think predictions are only relevant to people that have done no SNP testing.

        At this point, there are soooo many SNP tests to choose from that dollar for dollar, it would probably be a more sensible value to do the Big Y test & all of the novel variants that come with it. But if you do so, please join the relevant project & let the administrators have access to your BAM file. This is how new branches of the y-haplotree are discovered today.

        Timothy Peterman

        Comment


        • #5
          It would appear that in addition to just revising how the predictions are handled, this update actually revised FTDNA's haplotree itself.

          I was formerly CTS11962+, but now I'm one node further down the tree at L1029+ (which was previously not included on FTDNA's tree).

          Both of these are SNP confirmed by Big Y, though my terminal SNP at this point actually appears to be YP444*, which is several nodes down the tree from L1029.

          Comment


          • #6
            Less Accurate

            I too was surprised to find my R-L21 gone and replaced with R-M269 (or something). The change is misleading because I know from 23andme and from ancestry.com raw results filtered through Prometheus that R-L21 is the correct one.

            I have a SNP test on order to try to get a lower terminal SNP than R-L21, but this business of going in the wrong direction (albeit temporarily) is annoying.

            Comment


            • #7
              Does this extra effort regarding haplotypes have anything to do with the delays for y-dna tests for batches 603 onwards?

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by 381858 View Post
                I too was surprised to find my R-L21 gone and replaced with R-M269 (or something). The change is misleading because I know from 23andme and from ancestry.com raw results filtered through Prometheus that R-L21 is the correct one.

                I have a SNP test on order to try to get a lower terminal SNP than R-L21, but this business of going in the wrong direction (albeit temporarily) is annoying.
                You know the results of your SNP test for L21, and that is the accurate and definite information about L21. FTDNA is making predictions based on STRs.

                My understanding of the announcement is that some STR results had been found in the FTDNA database that the STR data were the same, but the Y-DNA belonged to halogroups at different branches (as determined by SNP testing performed later). Thus FTDNA decided to assign a more general haplogroup when doing predictions - they cannot really do anything else, since they would be giving out a wrong assignment to some. And I understood that there were many situations like that.

                The above is some simplification, as FTDNA has SNP Assurance Program https://www.familytreedna.com/learn/...nce-program-2/

                W. (Mr.)
                Last edited by dna; 19 March 2015, 10:43 AM.

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                • #9
                  When I first tested my Y-DNA to twelve markers I was predicted as R-M269 then as I tested farther, the prediction went to R-L21. Now I'm back at M269 with 67 markers tested. I understand why the prediction went one way and now is stepping back. And at this point I think I'll just leave it as the 111 marker test just costs too much. Maybe someday I'll see a point to digging really deeply into my genetics, but at the moment I'm interested in my more recent genealogy.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by keigh View Post
                    When I first tested my Y-DNA to twelve markers I was predicted as R-M269 then as I tested farther, the prediction went to R-L21. Now I'm back at M269 with 67 markers tested. I understand why the prediction went one way and now is stepping back. And at this point I think I'll just leave it as the 111 marker test just costs too much. Maybe someday I'll see a point to digging really deeply into my genetics, but at the moment I'm interested in my more recent genealogy.
                    I just hope this isn't a ploy to get more cash from the customers.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by keigh View Post
                      When I first tested my Y-DNA to twelve markers I was predicted as R-M269 then as I tested farther, the prediction went to R-L21. Now I'm back at M269 with 67 markers tested. I understand why the prediction went one way and now is stepping back. And at this point I think I'll just leave it as the 111 marker test just costs too much. Maybe someday I'll see a point to digging really deeply into my genetics, but at the moment I'm interested in my more recent genealogy.
                      I would go for any meaningful test that would move forward our genealogical research, as our biggest problem is convincing people to test.

                      There are family branches that nobody tested from...***

                      W. (Mr.)

                      *** I cannot prove that, but female researches from those branches told me so. And since we are talking about relationships from the early 17th century (or possibly a little bit earlier), Family Finder cannot be used...

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by A.Lock View Post
                        I just hope this isn't a ploy to get more cash from the customers.
                        Come on! It's A LOCK that it is to get more cash from the customers!! LOL!!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          The changes to the haplotree did not and do not influence lab procedures, and are not related to the testing backlog. Should you have any concerns regarding placing an order that for a SNP you think you will be negative for please contact the helpdesk (email turn around is almost to normal levels) and someone will be able to assist.

                          -Darren
                          Family Tree DNA

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            New R haplogroup classification moots an SNP test?

                            Originally posted by Fred View Post
                            I was re-classified from R-173 to R-M269. I have a P-25 SNP result due in the next few weeks. This test now appears pointless. What options do I have in cancelling or requesting a refund for this test?
                            I'd advise canceling the SNP test. Phylogenetically, P25 is R1b1; M269 is R1b1a2. P25 is upstream of your R-M269 prediction and if it goes through, you'll be stuck with the label until you test M269 &/or downstream SNPs.

                            Let's take FTDNA at its word: The R-M269 prediction is 100% reliable. And, it's been my experience that when they make that call it's right.

                            If you want to test just oone SNP, why not L173 which was your earlier prediction?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by 381858 View Post
                              I too was surprised to find my R-L21 gone and replaced with R-M269 (or something). The change is misleading because I know from 23andme and from ancestry.com raw results filtered through Prometheus that R-L21 is the correct one.

                              I have a SNP test on order to try to get a lower terminal SNP than R-L21, but this business of going in the wrong direction (albeit temporarily) is annoying.
                              I'm currently waiting on my R-L21 SNP result which was based on their prediction however like you mine has gone back to R-M269. If its a negative result I'm going to be quite angry.

                              Comment

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