35/37 match - 10 generations+ to MRCA...

[NormanGalway]

After an upgrade to 37 markers, my original 10/12 match has remained steady at a genetic distance of 2! Now we are 35/37 (and have the same surname -- he has one extra letter).

This makes me happy because it "proves" where my family is from (I was "origin unknown" before), which is what first prompted me to explore genetic genealogy in the first place.

But I am curious how accurate the DNATip statistics are... for instance, we could NOT have a TMRCA in the last 10 generations. DNATip suggests we are at a 69% probability for 10-14 generations ago, and 92% at 18 generations... and so forth.

This seems like a fairly long span of time given how close of a match we are.
Has anyone had any experience using DNATip to guesstimate and then locate the ancestor using paper-based methods? Thx.

p.s. The 10 generation thing is a certainty because my family was in an isolated corner of the rural South and his in Europe during the vast majority of that time frame.

[Stevo]

That is really awesome news, Norman!

I cannot really help you with your TMRCA question, but I do think your news is fantastic. Wish I could be as fortunate.

Are you able now to fill in any paper trail gaps?

Where is it that you have established is the old ancestral homeland?

[NormanGalway]

Ireland

and specifically Galway, hence my screen name. Normandy (hence, "Norman") being the origin before that.
There were "Tribes of Galway" (so labeled by Cromwell), and mine was thought to have died out. Not so!
A true "Dr. Livingston, I presume?" moment.

[Stevo]

and specifically Galway, hence my screen name. Normandy (hence, "Norman") being the origin before that.
There were "Tribes of Galway" (so labeled by Cromwell), and mine was thought to have died out. Not so!
A true "Dr. Livingston, I presume?" moment.

Cool!

Any travel plans? Are you going to try to meet your relatives there in person?

[NormanGalway]

absolutely...

and much drinking of Guiness, no doubt...

[Jim Barrett]

Probability

But I am curious how accurate the DNATip statistics are... for instance, we could NOT have a TMRCA in the last 10 generations. DNATip suggests we are at a 69% probability for 10-14 generations ago, and 92% at 18 generations... and so forth.

If you had a MRCA in the last two generations their statement would still be 100% correct. With a 69% probability for 10-14 generations there is also a 31% probability that it wasn't within that range. That is almost one time out of three.

[vineviz]

This seems like a fairly long span of time given how close of a match we are.
Has anyone had any experience using DNATip to guesstimate and then locate the ancestor using paper-based methods?

I am fairly certain that the FTDNA DNATiP estimates make some allowance for the mutation rate of each individual marker. It will give a longer estimate to the MRCA if the mismatches are on slow-mutating markers than if they are on fast-mutating markers.

[Lost-Sheep]

FTDNA's "DNATip"...

I recently authored a thread concerning an R1b1 34/37 marker match over the span of 180+/- years of my illigitimate great-grandfather's biological paternal family who originated from the same rural county of North Carolina (USA) in which he was born and was doubted/chastised by some of the FTDNA Forum locals for the three-marker genetic distance...all fast-mutating markers on my mother's paternal side...

Today, I just received a 35/37-marker match from a cousin on my own paternal (matching surname) line. I have a paper-trail large enough to choke a horse that proves our MRC-PATERNAL-Ancestor walked the face of this planet in rural Botetourt County, Virginia (USA) from 1776-186? and one of the marker mutations occurred on the DYS447 less-frequently occurring mutation probability. My English surname is extremely RARE and our MRC-PATERNAL-Ancestor was the ONLY male of such stated surname to reside in that region of the Virginian frontierland.

So why is it NOT possible that my mother's R1b1 brother (who sports the Y-DNA of her illigitimate paternal grandfather) match 34/37 all fast-mutating markers with this other person? 12/12, my R1b1 uncle ONLY matches this person, 23/25 and 34/37 markers. ALL of the two and three-step mutations in my uncle's results share the SAME surname as his 34/37-marker match!

And YES, Stevo...most of the North Carolina counties were indeed "rural" in 1864...your point? My point is that there were not nearly as many R1b1 'white-boys' to pick and choose from in this specific RURAL North Carolinian county in 1864...especially since my uncle's very rare Y-DNA string sticks out like a sore-thumb with a DYS393-14 allele that specifically identifies his branch of biological paternal surname.

I personally corresponded with one of FTDNA's customer service 'experts' who stated that FTDNA's "DNATip" is nothing more than a statistical formula that DOES NOT take into consideration the variables of fast-mutating alleles vs. slow-mutating alleles. Does that NOT matter?

[Stevo]

Lost-Sheep -

I don't think we said that you were wrong about your 34/37 near-match. As I recall, we merely discussed the possibilities and the TMRCA and urged caution.

I also seem to recall that most of us praised your genealogical acumen and skill in running down difficult leads.

Glad to see that you are back here posting, by the way!

[Eki]

There's a beautiful Irish song named "Galway Bay". I have it on a CD.

http://ingeb.org/songs/ifyouev.html

[NormanGalway]

thanks for the tip, Eki!

Very kind of you.

I'l have to check that out on itunes!

[Lost-Sheep]

There's a beautiful Irish song named "Galway Bay". I have it on a CD.

"Uhm..."FTDNA Tip" has been very useful to me! Thank you FTDNA for answering all of my Y-DNA questions!"

Max,

I see nothing here that makes Eki's point relevant to a 35/37 DNA match. So why don't you warn her the same way you warned me!

We are not allotted the opportunity to go off the subject here. That sucks and it is not right, but it appears to remain constant...

Oh...I guess I had better make a statement concerning the Y-DNA subject content of this thread in order that I do not receive ANOTHER warning from the FTDNA Cops. Uhm..."FTDNA Tip" has been very useful to me! Thank you FTDNA for answering all of my Y-DNA questions!

Later...

[Eki]

"Uhm..."FTDNA Tip" has been very useful to me! Thank you FTDNA for answering all of my Y-DNA questions!"

Max,

I see nothing here that makes Eki's point relevant to a 35/37 DNA match. So why don't you warn her the same way you warned me!

Her? I have stated my Y-DNA is I1a. What makes you think I'm a "she"?

[DHD]

OK what is FTDNAtip ?
Also, if I match all but say , three markers of 37, what does that really mean ? The particular markers involved are significant I gather, but I don't understand in what way.
Diane

[Kaiser]

What makes you think I'm a "she"?

Eki --- I think it's your nick!!