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Old 20th March 2017, 07:43 AM
MDennis47 MDennis47 is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2017
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Questions regarding 111-marker matches...

11 of my 25-marker matches have tested up to 111 markers as I have. One of these matches is also a match at 37 markers and another is a match at 67 markers, but none were matches at 111 markers. None of them share the same surname. I went through each match to see what the probability was for each level of testing at 24 generations. Nearly every one of the matches had a probability greater than 97% at 24 generations when comparing 25, 37, and 67 markers, however when comparing 111 markers, the highest probability was only 83%. The remaining probabilities were mostly around 50%, with one going as low as 18%.

I don’t expect any of the matches to be near relatives due the surname difference (greater than 10 generations to MRCA).

Probability at 24 generations (compared at 25, 37, 67, then 111 markers):
Person A – 97.50%, 99.80%, 99.92%, 83.33%
Person B – 97.50%, 99.80%, 99.62%, 56.98%
Person C – 99.66%, 99.78%, 99.91%, 45.46% <--- my Y-67 match
Person D – 97.66%, 99.81%, 90.54%, 47.66% <--- my Y-37 match
Person E – 99.66%, 99.98%, 99.31%, 51.59%
Person F – 99.66%, 99.98%, 99.94%, 61.49%
Person G – 97.50%, 99.00%, 93.93%, 34.19%
Person H - 97.50%, 99.00%, 93.93%, 18.47%
Person I – 99.66%, 99.78%, 99.65%, 74.67%

From my understanding, the 111-marker comparison would be the most accurate, but this would mean the other levels are completely pointless because they do not reflect the 111-marker comparison at all. Would the 111-marker comparison be best used only for closely related matches? If so, what level should I look at with my situation of a common ancestor greater than 10 generations back?

Last edited by MDennis47; 20th March 2017 at 07:49 AM. Reason: Greater specificity
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