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Old 3rd August 2017, 11:59 AM
TwiddlingThumbs TwiddlingThumbs is offline
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Any empirical genealogical data behind TiP and gd guidelines?

Y-DNA TMRCA calculations (eg TiP) use as input (i) data about the current "per transmission" mutation rates of different STR markers and (ii) generally crude methods (eg, the infinite alleles model) of estimating how many mutations have occurred between 2 lines of assumed descendants from a common male ancestor. The calculations are pleasingly complex and spit out a number, but have any empirical studies been done using genealogical data to confirm whether the calculations are accurate?

Similarly, FTDNA's genetic distance guidelines indicate whether, based on genetic distance and number of markers tested, two men are "tightly related", "related", "probably related" or "not related". Did FTDNA come up with those guidelines based on empirical studies correlating the genetic distance results with genealogical data, or did they come up with them just based on unverified TMRCA mathematical calculations?
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Old 3rd August 2017, 01:24 PM
John McCoy John McCoy is offline
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From the nature of the problem, I am guessing there is not very much real-world data behind these numbers. It seems to me it would be very difficult to obtain a large enough unbiased sample.
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