Z209 was the Goths

[benowicz]

I think Z209 was the Goths. It looks like the map from Wikipedia.

[Armando]

Modern distribution of Y-DNA doesn't always match origin. Since it is hypothesized that subclades of R1b-M269 went into western Europe from the Steppe in the Bronze Age and there was no such thing as Goths in the Bronze Age. Since Z209 is an ancestor of M153 which is found only in Basques and also Z209 is a descendant of DF27 and the Basques have the highest frequency of DF27 of Europe then the source of Z209 can't be pinpointed to an historical or specific language group. If the origin could be pinpointed to a language group it would more likely be a proto-Celtic group.

[MMaddi]

I tend to agree with Armando on this. It's fun to speculate about the deep ancestry of our paternal line. But in the absence of a positive SNP result from ancient DNA proving that a specific subclade was present in some ancient population, it remains speculation, something like the stories about King Arthur and his Round Table.

With that said, I do believe that the downstream subclade (FGC13486) established in the Big Y results of myself and two other matches may have been present in the Goths or Lombards who came to Italy after the Roman Empire fell (about 500 AD) and set up relatively short-lived kingdoms. All three of us are FGC13486+ and have Italian ancestry, one with northern Italian ancestry and myself and the other Sicilian/southern Italian ancestry. The age estimate by Iain McDonald, a co-administrator of the R1b-U106 Project, is that FGC13486 arose about 259 AD. Since R1b-U106 and its subclades are mainly northern European and are especially found among Germanic populations and are not common at all in Italy, a Goth or Lombard line bringing my subclade to Italy seems plausible. However, until someone finds that the remains of a Goth or Lombard from the period of their kingdoms in Italy is FGC13486+, it's merely a plausible theory on my part, not proven.

[Armando]

I tend to agree with Armando on this. It's fun to speculate about the deep ancestry of our paternal line. But in the absence of a positive SNP result from ancient DNA proving that a specific subclade was present in some ancient population, it remains speculation, something like the stories about King Arthur and his Round Table.

With that said, I do believe that the downstream subclade (FGC13486) established in the Big Y results of myself and two other matches may have been present in the Goths or Lombards who came to Italy after the Roman Empire fell (about 500 AD) and set up relatively short-lived kingdoms. All three of us are FGC13486+ and have Italian ancestry, one with northern Italian ancestry and myself and the other Sicilian/southern Italian ancestry. The age estimate by Iain McDonald, a co-administrator of the R1b-U106 Project, is that FGC13486 arose about 259 AD. Since R1b-U106 and its subclades are mainly northern European and are especially found among Germanic populations and are not common at all in Italy, a Goth or Lombard line bringing my subclade to Italy seems plausible. However, until someone finds that the remains of a Goth or Lombard from the period of their kingdoms in Italy is FGC13486+, it's merely a plausible theory on my part, not proven.

It is a lot easier to speculate about much younger SNPs from the historical period such as yours as opposed to SNPs that have a TMRCA of 4400 ybp which is about when the Steppe people went into western Europe and writing didn't even exist in that part of the world nor did many of the languages of the historical period.

[MMaddi]

It is a lot easier to speculate about much younger SNPs from the historical period such as yours as opposed to SNPs that have a TMRCA of 4400 ybp which is about when the Steppe people went into western Europe and writing didn't even exist in that part of the world nor did many of the languages of the historical period.

That's a good point and reinforces your previous post in this thread.

[benowicz]

The map doesn't look any different to me.

[Armando]

The map doesn't look any different to me.

Which map are you talking about? The map of Z209 will only have modern people whose ancestors have moved around a whole lot since 4400 years ago when Z209 first appeared in a single person and was long before Goths existed so the Z209 map has nothing to do with Goths.

[benowicz]

The map shows the Goths starting up in north Poland and ending up in north Spain, just like Z209. The map doesn't say when those Z209 people were tested, but I doubt it was 4,400 years ago. So I think it's still open to prove that it wasn't the Goths. Probably it was.

[Armando]

The map shows the Goths starting up in north Poland and ending up in north Spain, just like Z209.

The Goths didn't exist 4,400 years ago when Z209 did and the Visigoths did not go into Spain until the late Roman period which was thousands of years after Z209 first appeared. Z209 and other subclades of DF27 were already well established in Spain long before the Roman period and therefore long before the Visigoths entered Spain therefore Z209 could not have come from the Goths.

The map doesn't say when those Z209 people were tested, but I doubt it was 4,400 years ago.

There has not been a single ancient specimen that has tested for Z209 so of course they were all tested recently. There is going to be a joint paper this year by Harvard and a Copehagen university on Bell Beaker that will likely have DF27 specimens in Spain or France just as long as the DNA is in good enough condition.

So I think it's still open to prove that it wasn't the Goths. Probably it was.

No, it is not open to prove. Anyone that has an understanding of the phylogenetic tree and is able to logically follow the data can see that Z209 definitely was not due to the Goths. Denying the hard facts that completely disprove a Gothic origin of Z209 won't make it true.

[benowicz]

We will just have to agree to disagree.

[MMaddi]

We will just have to agree to disagree.

If you agree with the scientific method and simple logic, then you have to admit that your theory amounts to speculation, at least until the point that Z209 is found in Goth remains from before the period that they entered Spain.

[benowicz]

Except for the map it is all speculation. That study he cited hasn't even been performed yet. So the Goths still are in the running. Everyone is entitled to their opinion.

[Armando]

If you agree with the scientific method and simple logic, then you have to admit that your theory amounts to speculation, at least until the point that Z209 is found in Goth remains from before the period that they entered Spain.

Even if Z209 were to be found in Goths it would not mean that is where Z209 originated.

[Armando]

Except for the map it is all speculation. That study he cited hasn't even been performed yet. So the Goths still are in the running. Everyone is entitled to their opinion.

The Goths are not in the running because they did not exist 4,400 years ago. This is a very simple concept that is being completely ignored. Something that did not exist until about 3,000 years ago can't be the source of an SNP that did not exist until 4,400 years ago and was widespread in Spain before the Goths. You would have to change history for you to be correct.

[benowicz]

For evidence of 4,400 years of age you submitted a study that hasn't been performed yet. So this point is also speculation.

I think my idea of mutual tolerance should be respected. If I tolerate someone, but they insist not to tolerate me that makes them look not so good.