Is there a strong correlation between Haplogroup matches and actual haplogroup?

[acj412]

Hi, so I recently received the first 12 of 37 Y-STR markers. My predicted haplogroup is O. I'm also awaiting results of the deep clade analysis. Out of two perfect matches, 1 is O2b (50%). Out of 1-step mutations, 2/3 are O2b (66%), and out of 3 step mutations, 8/11 are O2b (77%) Virtually all the rest of the matches are O (which could possibly end up being O2b with testing). Although I know that only SNP tests can determine haplogroup with certainty, do these matches indicate a high probability that I am O2b?

Thanks in advance

[cacio]

The evidence certainly suggests that you should share the same haplogroup. It is sometimes possible to have 12/12 matches with different haplogroups, but this is very rare, and, as you point out, there doesn't seem to be any other haplogroup in the vicinity.

O2b is common in Japan and in Korea, so your origin could make the assignment even more suggestive.

cacio

[acj412]

Thanks for your response. My ethnicity is Korean (no surprise). My clan traces back to Zhu Xi, a famous Chinese philosopher (1130-1200). I'm rather interested in my haplogroup because a haplogroup of O2b essentially rules out a male Chinese ancestor. I can trace back through the family genealogy books to this ancestor, but edits to family registers were not uncommon back in the day as wealthy individuals were able to bribe their way in as a way of improving social status. Or alternatively , even if the historical record is accurate, a single non-paternity event in the past 800 years would be enough to change my haplogroup.

So, all in all, I probably am O2b. Although I am a little disappointed that perhaps my family story is not what I thought it to be, I guess that the same might be true of a lot of people in my situation. In any case, I'm not taking myself off the register... I probably have just as much right to be on there as half of the people on that list

ACJ

[cacio]

O2b is present also in China, so as usual one cannot pinpoint the exact origin of a single individual. O2b is an ancient group. For instance, Jin et al's 2003 paper on Korean Y finds about 5% of O2b in a sample of Beijing Han people (although elsewhere the numbers shown in papers could be lower). It's not as frequent as in Korea, but it's there.

According to that paper, about 25% of Koreans are O2b. Similar percentages are found also in Manchurians. Japan may have even more (30%). As you probably know, O2b is supposed to be a sign of the Yayoi expansion in Japan, which came from Korea.

cacio