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  #31  
Old 15th May 2018, 03:34 PM
TwiddlingThumbs TwiddlingThumbs is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hfp43 View Post
Anecdotal. At 37 markers, I have six matches with the same surname and haplotype. My relationship to all of them is now known, as is our New World patriarch (1655-1699). Five of the six TiP estimates of TMRCA are approximately correct. The sixth is off due to an additional mutation.
So you had no false matches at 37 markers? What is your haplotype?
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  #32  
Old 15th May 2018, 05:10 PM
hfp43 hfp43 is offline
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TiP Estimates

I may very well have some false matches at 37 markers, but my five 35/37 matches all have the same surname (not mine, by the way) and the same New World patriarch. Haplogroup I-M253.
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  #33  
Old 15th May 2018, 07:57 PM
SpitFire SpitFire is offline
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Out of my dad's 13 matches, 4 do not have the surname we've traced back and believe is correct. 3 of those 4 are the same and the oldest ancestors come from the same region of England as the surname I've traced. Sometimes I wonder why anyone takes these tests if no one puts any faith in them
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  #34  
Old 15th May 2018, 09:17 PM
TwiddlingThumbs TwiddlingThumbs is offline
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Originally Posted by hfp43 View Post
I may very well have some false matches at 37 markers, but my five 35/37 matches all have the same surname (not mine, by the way) and the same New World patriarch. Haplogroup I-M253.
I'd be interested in how many false matches you have. The TiP probabilities for correct matches are not the issue. It's the false positives.
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  #35  
Old 15th May 2018, 11:10 PM
dna dna is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TwiddlingThumbs View Post
I'd be interested in how many false matches you have. The TiP probabilities for correct matches are not the issue. It's the false positives.
What about 50+ matches at 67 markers with none appearing to be in the genealogical timeframe.

Those who did Y-DNA111 do not show as matches there.

Those who did Big Y are by SNPs in subclades that separated around 2000 years ago.

The above is within the haplogroup I.

To be fair TiP shows 99.98% at 24 generations, and not 100%.


Mr. W.
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  #36  
Old 16th May 2018, 06:34 PM
hfp43 hfp43 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TwiddlingThumbs View Post
I'd be interested in how many false matches you have. The TiP probabilities for correct matches are not the issue. It's the false positives.
My closest matches at 37 markers are all 35/37. There are five of them, all the same surname, all with well-documented family trees to the same New World patriarch.

At 34/37, I have three more matches. One of them has the same surname and patriarch as my five 35-37 matches, but each of the other two has a different surname. Unless they both have an NPE (not out of the question) we do not share a common paternal-line ancestor within the past eight generations.

I have just one 33/37 match, with yet another surname. Again, absent an NPE he does not share a common paternal-line ancestor with me within eight generations.

To summarize, of my nine matches of 34/37 or closer, six are consistent with well-researched genealogy, but three are not.
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